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Dr Christian Schumacher

Research Interests

  • forecasting techniques
  • dynamic factor models with large data sets
  • state-space models, potential output and NAIRU measurement

Refereed Publications

  • Kaufmann, S., C. Schumacher (2018), Identifying relevant and irrelevant variables in sparse factor models, Journal of Applied Econometrics, forthcoming.
  • Schumacher, C. (2016), A comparison of MIDAS and bridge equations, International Journal of Forecasting 32, 257-270.
  • Foroni, C., M. Marcellino and C. Schumacher (2015), U-MIDAS: MIDAS regressions with unrestricted lag polynomials, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society – Series A, Vol. 178, pp. 57-82.
  • Kuzin, V., M. Marcellino and C. Schumacher (2013), Pooling versus model selection for nowcasting GDP with many predictors: Empirical evidence for six industrialized countries, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 28, pp. 392-411.
  • Kuzin, V., M. Marcellino and C. Schumacher (2011), MIDAS vs. mixed-frequency VAR: Nowcasting GDP in the Euro Area, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 27, pp. 529-542.
  • Schumacher, C. (2011), Forecasting with Factor Models Estimated on Large Datasets: A Review of the Recent Literature and Evidence for German GDP, Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, Vol. 231/1, pp. 28-49.
  • Marcellino, M. and C. Schumacher (2010), Factor MIDAS for Nowcasting and Forecasting with Ragged-Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 72, pp. 518-550.
  • Schumacher, C. (2010), Factor forecasting using international targeted predictors: The case of German GDP, Economics Letters, Vol. 107, pp. 95-98.
  • Schumacher, C. (2008), Measuring uncertainty of the euro area NAIRU: Monte Carlo and empirical evidence for alternative confidence intervals in a state space framework, Empirical Economics, Vol. 34, pp. 357-379.
  • Schumacher, C. and J. Breitung (2008), Real-time forecasting of German GDP based on a large factor model with monthly and quarterly data, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 24, pp. 368-398.
  • Schumacher, C. (2007), Forecasting German GDP using alternative factor models based on large datasets, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 26, pp. 271-302.
  • Schumacher C. and C. Dreger (2005), The Out-of-Sample Performance of Leading Indicators for the German Business Cycle: Single vs. Combined Forecasts, Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, Vol. 2, pp. 71-88.
  • Schumacher C. (2004), A comparison of mean square error approximations for a small estimated state space model, Allgemeines Statistisches Archiv, Journal of the German Statistical Society, Vol. 88, pp. 327-345.
  • Schumacher C. and C. Dreger (2004), Estimating large-scale factor models for economic activity in Germany : Do they outperform simpler models?, Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, Vol. 224, pp. 732-750.
  • Schumacher, C. and C. Dreger (2003), Are Real Interest Rates Cointegrated? Further evidence based on paneleconometric methods, Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 139, pp. 41-54.
  • Schumacher, C. (2002), Forecasting trend output in the Euro area, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 21, pp. 543-558.

Other Working Papers and Publications

  • Schumacher, C. (2014), Comments on "Short-term inflation projections: A Bayesian vector autoregressive approach", International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 30(3), pp. 645-647.
  • Kaufmann, S. and C. Schumacher (2013), Bayesian estimation of sparse dynamic factor models with order-independent identification, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee, Working Papers, 13.04.
  • Schumacher, C. and C. Dreger (2004), Money Demand in Europe: Evidence from Panel Cointegration Tests, in: S. G. Hall, U. Heilemann and P. Pauly (eds.), Macroeconometric Models and European Monetary Union, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin.
  • Schumacher C. (2002), Alternative Schätzansätze für das Produktionspotenzial im Euroraum, HWWA Studien, Vol. 71, Nomos, Baden-Baden.

Discussion Papers

Additional information

Contact

Dr Christian Schumacher

Dr Christian Schumacher

+49 69 9566-2939

+49 69 9566-4026

Address

Deutsche Bundesbank

Central Office, Research Centre

Wilhelm-Epstein-Straße 14
60431 Frankfurt am Main
Germany