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Event

Third IMF Statistical Forum

Official Statistics to Support Evidence-based Economic Policymaking

19.11.2015 - 20.11.2015
Frankfurt am Main

Logo of the third IMF statistical forum [+]

This year's forum and discussions will touch upon themes such as the relevance of micro data for evidence-based policymaking; big data and micro-data hubs; statistics on a from-whom-to-whom basis; macroeconomic impacts of natural resources; and measuring material conditions. The Third IMF Statistical Forum will be co-organised by the Deutsche Bundesbank in Frankfurt am Main. The event will take place at the Westin Grand Hotel, Konrad-Adenauer-Strasse 7, in Frankfurt am Main, Germany, on 19 and 20 November 2015. The conference is by invitation only.

Day One
November 19, 2015

Welcome Remarks

9:00 AM - 9:15 AM

Jens Weidmann

Jens Weidmann,
President of the Deutsche Bundesbank

Introduction
9:15 AM - 9:30 AM

Min Zhu

Min Zhu,
Deputy Managing Director, IMF

Keynote Speech
9:30 AM - 10:30 AM

Ottmar Issing

Otmar Issing,
former Chief Economist and Member of the Board of the ECB

Session I: The Relevance of Micro Data for Evidence-Based Policies
11:00 AM - 12:30 PM

This session examines the role and relevance of micro data in economic policy; how micro data can be used to assess the effectiveness and efficiency of policies and policy instruments across a range of areas such as monetary policy, fiscal policy, and labor market analysis. Macroprudential policy focused on systemic stability calls for data on "tail events" which poses a particular challenge for official statistics to meet such data needs. Examples are microdata to evaluate regulatory changes, the effects of long-term unemployment benefits or job-creating measures, and distribution effects of monetary policy.

Speakers

Charles Manski
Charles Manski,
Professor of Economics at the Northwestern University, United States

Shirakawa Masaaki
Masaaki Shirakawa,
Professor of International Politics, Economics and Communications, Aoyama Gakuin University, Japan

Discussants

Yungtaek Jung
Yungtaek Jung,
Chief Representative in London, Bank of Korea

Christoph Schmidt
Christoph Schmidt,
President of the RWI Essen and Chairman of the German Council of Economic Experts, Germany

Chair
Claudia Buch © Frank Rumpenhorst / Bundesbank
Claudia Buch,
Deputy President of the Deutsche Bundesbank

Lunchtime Presentation: Data Science for Official Statistics

1:30 PM

Granular data have been hailed as the "new oil" of the 21st century, with clear benefits to policy, society and public opinion research.This talk provides an overview of the way in which new data and new approaches have been used to measure a key area of the economy - R&D and innovation. It discusses the associated opportunities, challenges and lessons learned.

Julia Ingrid Lane
Julia Lane,
Professor at Wagner Graduate School of Public Service, New York University, United States

Session II: Big Data and Micro-Data Hubs
2:00 PM - 3:30 PM

This session explores the potential of large and often unstructured granular information ("Big Data") as well as highly detailed administrative or survey data for decision making and statistical analysis. Data access, data protection, data quality and data ownership are key issues to be considered by data providers and also much debated in the public. For example, Micro Data Hubs are repositories of micro data made available to analysts, policy makers, and researchers, while protecting the confidentiality of the (highly sensitive) micro information.

Speakers

Alberto Cavallo
Alberto Cavallo,
Cecil and Ida Green Assistant Professor of Applied Economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Sloan School of Management, United States

Stefan Bender
Stefan Bender,
Head of Research Data and Service Center, Deutsche Bundesbank

Discussants

Patrick McGuire
Patrick McGuire,
Head of the International Data Hub, Bank for International Settlements

Julia Ingrid Lane
Julia Lane,
Professor at Wagner Graduate School of Public Service, New York University, United States

Chair
Turulay Kenc
Turalay Kenç,
Deputy Governor, Turkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankasi

Session III: Statistics on a from-whom-to-whom Basis
4:00 PM - 5:30 PM

The 2008 global financial crisis highlighted the need to better identify the build-up of risks in the financial sector and to understand financial interrelations among the sectors of an economy and between domestic sectors and their counterparties in the rest of the world. Statistics on a from-whom- to-whom basis permit the analysis of relationships between systemically relevant institutional sectors and subsectors within an economy and also between these sectors and subsectors and non-residents. Trade and production statistics can also be set up on a "from-whom-to-whom" basis, illustrating the generation of value added as a result of international exchange of products and services in a network of labor partition among companies.

Speakers

Markus Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier,
Edwards S. Sanford Professor at Princeton University, Director Bendheim Center for Finance, United States

Aurel Schubert
Aurel Schubert,
Director General, Directorate General Statistics, ECB

Discussants

Katherine Hennings
Katherine Hennings,
Senior Advisor, Banco Central do Brasil

Joao Amador
João Amador,
Head of the Fiscal Policies and Structural Studies Division, Economics and Research Department, Banco de Portugal

Chair
Louis Marc Ducharme
Louis Marc Ducharme,
Director, Statistics Department, IMF

Day Two
November 20, 2015

Session IV: Natural Resources: Macroeconomic Impacts
8:30 AM - 9:30 AM

This session considers the conceptual frameworks and data requirements for analyzing the macroeconomic impacts of natural resources on individual economies and the global economy. It discusses the statistical measures required to assess the role of government revenues from natural resources and related issues of transparency and the frameworks used by resource-rich countries to manage commodity price uncertainty.  Particular challenges for official statistics are the measurement of natural resource components of GDP, government revenues, and subsidies.

SpeakerDiscussant

Vitor Gaspar
Vitor Gaspar,
Director, Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF

Hilde C. Bjørnland

Hilde C. Bjørnland,
Professor of Economics at BI Norwegian Business School and Director of the Centre for Applied Macro and Petroleum economics (CAMP)

Chair
Ahmed Abdulkarim Alkolifey
Ahmed Abdulkarim Alkholifey,
Deputy Governor for Research and International Affairs at Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA)

Session V: Measuring Material Conditions of Households - Growth, Jobs, and Wealth
9:30 AM - 11:00 AM

This session addresses the need to go beyond measures of GDP to assess the well-being of households. Some key conceptual issues of what exactly should be measured remain. Therefore, the session examines the range of indicators that could be used to complement estimates of GDP to derive a more reliable measure of well-being. It will also examine how statisticians may go about compiling and disseminating distributional information for evidence-based policy. The session discusses the role of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals in promoting the development of coherent measures of wellbeing.

Speakers

Krislert Samphantharak
Krislert Samphantharak,
Associate Professor of Economics School of Global Policy and Strategy, University of California, San Diego, United States

Luigi Guiso
Luigi Guiso,
Axa Professor of Household Finance and Insurance, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance, Italy

Discussants

Olimpia Bover
Olympia Bover,
Head of Unit of Microeconomic Information and Analysis, Research Division, Banco de España

Thomas F. Alexander
Thomas F. Alexander,
Senior Economist, Statistics Department, IMF

Chair
Marco Mira d’Ercole
Marco Mira d’Ercole,
OECD Head of Household Statistics and Progress Measurement Division

Round Table Discussion
11:30 AM - 1:00 PM

  • Summary of the individual sessions and conclusion for the way forward.
  • Is there a micro data illusion? Limitations of manageability and controllability of new mountains of micro data. How to strike the right balance in micro and macro data.
Participants
Ahmed Abdulkarim Alkolifey Ahmed Abdulkarim Alkholifey,
Deputy Governor for Research and International Affairs at Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA)
Claudia Buch © Frank Rumpenhorst / Bundesbank
Claudia Buch,
Deputy President of the Deutsche Bundesbank
Katherine Hennings
Katherine Hennings,
Advisor, Banco Central do Brasil
Walter Radermacher
Walter Radermacher,
Director General, Eurostat
Krislert Samphantharak
Krislert Samphantharak,
Associate Professor of Economics School of Global Policy and Strategy, University of California, San Diego, United States
Chair
Min Zhu
Min Zhu,
Deputy Managing Director, IMF

Closing remarks
1:00 PM - 1:15 PM

Louis Marc Ducharme

Louis Marc Ducharme,
Director, Statistics Department, IMF

Additional information

About the Third IMF Statistical Forum

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Venue

Westin Grand Hotel
Konrad-Adenauer-Strasse 7
60313 Frankfurt am Main
Germany

Conferences section

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Deutsche Bundesbank

Conferences section, K 11

Wilhelm-Epstein-Straße 14
60431 Frankfurt am Main
Germany

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