• Call for papers Measuring and Forecasting Financial Stability

• Programme

• Presentation: Matthew Willison
• Discussion: Michael Gapen
• Miroslav Misina and Greg Tkacz: Credit, Asset Prices, and Financial Stress in Canada
• Presentation: Miroslav Misina
• Discussion: Matthew Willison
• Michael Gapen: Estimating the Market Value of the Implicit Guarantee to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Using Contingent Claims
• Presentation: Michael Gapen
• Discussion: Thomas King
• Speech by Gernot Nerb: System for Monitoring Financial Stability in Kazakhstan
• Speech by Oleg Smolyakov: Current risks to financial stability
• Tigran Poghosyan and Martin Čihák: Distress in European Banks: An Analysis Based on a New Data Set
• Presentation: Tigran Poghosyan
• Discussion: Natalja von Westernhagen
• Natalja von Westernhagen u. a.
• Presentation: Natalja von Westernhagen
• Discussion: Tigran Poghosyan
• Mark Carlson, Thomas King and Kurt Lewis: Distress in the Financial Sector and Economic Activity
• Presentation: Thomas King
• Discussion: Miroslav Misina
• Jürgen von Hagen and Tai-kuang Ho: Twin Crises: An Examination of the Empirical Links
• Presentation: Tai-kuang Ho
• Discussion: Christian Bauer
• Christian Bauer and Bernhard Herz: The dynamics of financial crises and the risk to defend the exchange rate
• Presentation: Christian Bauer

• Call for papers Forecasting and monetary policy

• Programme

• Seth Pruitt: Uncertainty over Models and Data: The Rise and Fall of American Inflation
• Presentation: Seth Pruitt
• Discussion: Matei Demetrescu
• Kajal Lahiri and Xuguang Sheng: Measuring Forecast Uncertainty by Disagreement
• Presentation: Kajal Lahiri
• Discussion: Oyvind Eitrheim
• Malte Knüppel: Efficient Estimation of Forecast Uncertainty
• Presentation: Malte Knüppel
• Discussion: Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche
• Andres Gonzales, Kirstin Hubrich and Timo Teräsvirta: Forecasting Inflation with graduat regime shifts and exogenous information
• Presentation: Timo Teräsvirta
• Discussion: Christian Schumacher
• Anne Sofie Jore, James Mitchell, Shaun Vahey and Ida Wolden Bache: Combining Forecast Densities from VARs and DSGEs with Uncertain Instabilities
• Presentation: James Mitchell
• Discussion: Mu-Chun Wang
• Karsten R. Gerdrup, Hilde Bjornland, Anne Sofie Jore Christie Smith and Leif Anders Thorsrud: Density Combination at the Norges Bank
• Presentation: Karsten R. Gerdrup
• Discussion: Kenneth F. Wallis
• Junior Maih: Conditional Forecasts in DSGE Models
• Presentation: Junior Maih
• Discussion: Christian Dreger
• Francis X. Diebold: Keynote "Arbitrage-free (yet simple) Yield Curve Forecasting"
• Presentation: Francis X. Diebold
• Valentina Corradi, Andres Fernandez and Norman R. Swanson: Real-Time Datasets Really Do Make a Difference: Definitional Change, Data Release and Forecasting
• Presentation: Norman R. Swanson
• Discussion: Eleonora Granziera
• Simon Price, Jan Groen and George Kapetanios: Real-Time Evaluation of Inflation Report Forecasts for Inflation and Growth
• Presentation: Simon Price
• Discussion: Jan-Egbert Sturm
• Sylvia Kaufmann and Peter Kugler: A Monetary Real-Time Conditional Forecast of Euro Area Inflation
• Presentation: Sylvia Kaufmann
• Discussion: Philippe Mueller
• Jon Faust: Keynote Address "DSGE-based Forecasts in a Second-Best World of Policy Analysis"
• Presentation: Jon Faust

• Programme

• Programme

Economists have been trying for long to improve our understanding of the interlinkages between developments in the financial system and the real economy. Although we gained some insights into the relevance of important features of the financial system for the real economy many aspects of the integration of financial intermediaries and markets into the macroeconomy are still open. The recent turmoil in the financial systems has underlined the relevance of our lack of know-ledge. At this conference outstanding academics examine various related aspects. They discuss how shortcomings in the financial systems may be explained and influence the macroeconomy and how developments in the macroeconomy affect the financial markets. Other papers show the consequences of our limited know-ledge about the economy for the financial markets and possible consequences of the increasing public debt which have been observed in the course of the current crisis.

• Programme

• Tobias Adrian and Markus Brunnermeier: CoVaR
• Presentation: Markus Brunnermeier
• Discussion: Jean-Charles Rochet
• Nobuhiro Kyiotaki and John H. Moore: Liquidity, business cycles, and monetary policy
• Presentation: Nobuhiro Kyiotaki
• Discussion: Gerhard Illing
• Emmanuel Fahri and Jean Tirole: Collective moral hazard, maturity mismatch and systemic bailouts
• Presentation Emmanuel Fahri and Jean Tirole
• Discussion: John H. Moore
• Harald Uhlig: A Model of a systemic bank run
• Presentation: Harald Uhlig
• Discussion: Elena Carletti
• Darrell Duffie: The failure mechanics of dealer banks
• Presentation Darrell Duffie
• Discussion: Henry Pages
• Patrick Bolton, Tano Santos and José A. Sheinkman: Outside and inside liquidity
• Presentation: José A. Sheinkman
• Discussion: Hans Gersbach
• Francisco Barillas, Lars Peter Hansen and Thomas J. Sargent: Doubts or variability?
• Presentation: Thomas J. Sargent
• Discussion: Michel Juillard
• Lars Peter Hansen and Thomas J. Sargent: Fragile beliefs and the price of uncertainty
• Presentation: Lars Peter Hansen
• Discussion: Martin Schneider
• Monika Piazzesi and Martin Schneider: Trend and cycle in bond premia
• Presentation: Monika Piazzesi
• Discussion: Thomas Laubach
• Kenneth Singleton: Risk premium accounting in macro-dynamic term structure models
• Presentation: Kenneth Singleton
• Discussion: Oreste Tristani
• Caroline Jardet, Alain Monfort and Fulvio Pegoraro: No-arbitrage near-cointegrated VAR(p) term structure models, term premia and GDP growth
• Presentation: Alain Monfort
• Discussion: Mikhail Chernov
• John Cochrane: Understanding fiscal and monetary policy in 2008 - 2009 through the fiscal theory of the price level
• Presentation: John Cochrane
• Discussion: Bruno Solnik
• Emilia Bonaccorsi di Patti and Anil Kashyap: Which Banks Recover from a Banking Crisis?
• Presentation: Anil Kashyap
• Discussion: Claudia Buch

• Programme

• Call for papers The Future of Banking Regulation

• Tobias Adrian and Markus Brunnermeier: CoVaR
• Presentation: Tobias Adrian
• Discussion: Roman Inderst
• Martin Hellwig: Systemic Risk in the Financial Sector: An Analysis of the Subprime-Mortgage Financial Crisis
• Claudio Borio and Haibin Zhu: Capital regulation, Risk-Taking and Monetary Policy: A Missing Link in the Transmission Mechanism?
• Presentation: Haibin Zhu
• Discussion: Angela Maddaloni
• Anand M. Goel, Fenghua Song and Anjan V. Thakor: Infectious Leverage
• Presentation: Anjan V. Thakor
• Discussion: Peter Raupach
• Joshua Aizenman: Financial Crisis and the Paradox of Under- and Over-Regulation
• Presentation: Joshua Aizenman
• Discussion: Beatrice Weder di Mauro
• Rafael Repullo and Javier Suarez: The Procyclical Effects of Basel II
• Presentation: Javier Suarez
• Discussion: Alexander Karmann
• Gyöngyi Lóránth and Alan D. Morrison: Internal Reporting Systems, Compensation Contracts and Bank Regulation
• Presentation: Gyöngyi Lóránth
• Discussion: Sudipto Bhattacharya
• Erlend Walter Nier: Financial Stability Frameworks and the Role of Central Banks: Lessons from the Crisis
• Presentation: Erlend Walter Nier
• Discussion: Philippe Mongars
• Xin Huang, Hao Zhou and Haibin Zhu: A Framework for Assessing the Systemic Risk of Major Financial Institutions
• Presentation: Haibin Zhu
• Discussion: Ron Anderson

• Philipp Hartmann, Introduction to the Panel Discussion“How Should the Regulatory Architecture Be Altered?

• Programme

• Programme