Mitarbeiter

Dr. Christian Schumacher

• Deutsche Bundesbank
• Central Office, Research Centre
• Wilhelm Epstein Str. 14
• D-60431 Frankfurt am Main
•  
• +49 69 9566-2939
• +49 69 9566-4026
• Christian Schumacher

Research Interests

• forecasting techniques
• dynamic factor models with large data sets
• state-space models, potential output and NAIRU measurement

Working Papers

• Schumacher, C.(2009), Factor forecasting using international targeted predictors: The case of German GDP, Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper, Series 1: Economic Studies, No. 10/09.
• Kuzin, V., M. Marcellino and C. Schumacher (2009), MIDAS vs. mixed-frequency VAR: Nowcasting GDP in the Euro Area, Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper, Series 1: Economic Studies, No. 07/09.
• Kuzin, V., M. Marcellino and C. Schumacher (2009), Pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with many predictors: An application to German GDP, Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper, Series 1: Economic Studies, No. 03/09.
• Marcellino, M. and C. Schumacher (2007), Factor-MIDAS for now- and forecasting with ragged-edge data: A model comparison for German GDP, Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper, Series 1: Economic Studies, No. 34/07.
• Scharnagl, M. and C. Schumacher (2007), Reconsidering the role of monetary indicators for euro area inflation from a Bayesian perspective, Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper, Series 1: Economic Studies, No. 09/07.

Refereed Publications, Contribution to Books, Monographs

• Marcellino, M. and C. Schumacher (2010), Factor-MIDAS for now- and forecasting with ragged-edge data: A model comparison for German GDP, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, forthcoming.
• Kuzin, V., M. Marcellino and C. Schumacher (2010), MIDAS vs. mixed-frequency VAR: Nowcasting GDP in the Euro Area, International Journal of Forecasting, forthcoming.
• Schumacher, C. (2010), Factor forecasting using international targeted predictors: The case of German GDP, Economics Letters, forthcoming.
• Schumacher, C. and J. Breitung (2008), Real-time forecasting of German GDP based on a large factor model with monthly and quarterly data, International Journal of Forecasting, 24, 368-398, code link
• Schumacher, C. (2008), Measuring uncertainty of the euro area NAIRU: Monte Carlo and empirical evidence for alternative confidence intervals in a state space framework, Empirical Economics 34, 357-379.
• Schumacher, C. (2007), Forecasting German GDP using alternative factor models based on large datasets, Journal of Forecasting 26, 271-302
• Schumacher C. and C. Dreger (2005), The Out-of-Sample Performance of Leading Indicators for the German Business Cycle: Single vs. Combined Forecasts, Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis 2, No. 1, 71-88.
• Schumacher C. and C. Dreger (2004), Estimating large-scale factor models for economic activity in Germany : Do they outperform simpler models? Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik 224, 732-750.
• Schumacher C. (2004), A comparison of mean square error approximations for a small estimated state space model, Allgemeines Statistisches Archiv - Journal of the German Statistical Society 88, 327-345.
• Schumacher, C. and C. Dreger (2004), Money Demand in Europe : Evidence from Panel Cointegration Tests. In: Stephen G. Hall, U. Heilemann and P. Pauly (Eds.): Macroeconometric Models and European Monetary Union , Berlin , Duncker & Humblot.
• Schumacher, C. and C. Dreger (2003), Are Real Interest Rates Cointegrated? Further evidence based on paneleconometric methods, Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics 139, 41-54.
• Schumacher, C. (2002), Forecasting trend output in the Euro area, Journal of Forecasting 21, 543-558.
• Schumacher C. (2002), Alternative Schätzansätze für das Produktionspotenzial im Euroraum, HWWA Studien, Bd. 71, Baden-Baden, Nomos.