Customers in a shopping street
Survey on Consumer Expectations

What are households’ expectations? Since 2019, the Deutsche Bundesbank has been investigating this question by surveying households in Germany on a regular basis (Bundesbank Online Panel Households).

Inflation expectations
Expectations of individuals about the development of the inflation rate

In June 2022, individuals in Germany expected inflation of 7.5 % on average over the next 12 months, which represented a new record high since surveys commenced. 84 % of individuals anticipated that inflation rates will continue to rise, while 5 % anticipate a drop in interest rates over the next 12months. Averaging 5.4 % in June, the expected average rate of inflation over the next five years again increased only slightly.

Real estate price expectations
Expectations of individuals about changes in real estate prices

In June 2022, individuals in Germany predicted an increase in real estate prices of 9.6 % on average over the next 12 months. With growth of just under 12 %, expectations were highest in eastern Germany and lowest in the group of most westerly federal states (North Rhine-Westphalia, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saarland), at around 9 %. The proportion of individuals anticipating real estate prices to decrease climbed to just under 9 %.

Income expectations
Income growth expectations of individuals

Individuals remained positive about the development of their household income, with expectations averaging €100 over the next 12 months. Income expectations of persons with household income of between €2,500 and €4,000 showed a particularly significant increase. 

Other findings
Macroeconomic expectation indicators

The Deutsche Bundesbank conducts regular surveys of households’ expectations for unemployment, economic growth, rent prices, real estate prices, and interest rates on savings and loans. These data are used to calculate index figures, from which corresponding trends can be easily derived.