During the first lockdown due to the coronavirus pandemic, considerably more households in Germany expected the rate of inflation to rise than had one year before. Likewise, the proportion of households expecting falling prices was also significantly higher than in the previous year. During summer and autumn 2020, inflation expectations somewhat decreased, but increased again in December. In January 2021, they returned to the level of autumn last year.
Despite the coronavirus crisis, more than two-thirds of all respondents expect real estate prices to rise over the next 12 months. This means that, following a drop in prices in spring 2020 as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, most respondents again expect real estate prices to develop in line with their expectations from spring 2019. The worsening of the pandemic in autumn 2020 so far did not change real estate price expectations significantly, although they slightly decreased in January 2021 compared to year-end 2020.
The worsening of the coronavirus crisis in autumn 2020 also had an impact on expected income growth. Like in spring 2020, households expected on average that their mean monthly net income would decline. In January 2021, however, expectations regarding household income have increased compared to year-end 2020.
The Deutsche Bundesbank conducts regular surveys of households’ expectations for unemployment, economic growth, rent prices, real estate prices, and interest rates on savings and loans. These data are used to calculate index figures, from which corresponding trends can be easily derived.