What are households’ expectations? Since 2019, the Deutsche Bundesbank has been investigating this question by surveying households in Germany on a regular basis (Bundesbank Online Panel Households).

The average inflation expectations of individuals in Germany for the next 12 months dropped significantly in October, to 4.6% on average (September 5.0%). For the first time since February 2022, inflation expectations are thus well below the 5% mark again and almost on par with the average medium and long-term inflation expectations of 4.5% for the three-year horizon and 4.6% for the five-year horizon. The share of individuals expecting a fall in inflation rates increased to 31% in October, up from 27% in September.

An expected increase of 4.3% meant average expectations for the development of real estate prices were somewhat higher than in September (4%). In October, as in the previous month, 28% of individuals expected real estate prices in their region to decline over the next 12 months.

Individuals’ income expectations for the next 12 months were, at +€90, somewhat higher in October than had been anticipated in the previous month (+€70). However, respondents’ expectations differed markedly depending on their income. While individuals from households with a monthly net household income of €2,500 or more consistently expected an increase in their income, individuals with a monthly net household income of under €2,500 anticipate their income to decline over the next 12 months.

The Deutsche Bundesbank conducts regular surveys of households’ expectations for unemployment, economic growth, rent prices, real estate prices, and interest rates on savings and loans. These data are used to calculate index figures, from which corresponding trends can be easily derived.