Customers in a shopping street
Survey on Consumer Expectations

What are households’ expectations? Since 2019, the Deutsche Bundesbank has been investigating this question by surveying households in Germany on a regular basis (Bundesbank Online Panel Households).

Inflation expectations
Expectations of individuals about the development of the inflation rate

The inflation expectations of individuals in Germany for the next 12 months changed only marginally between June and July 2022. At 7.3% on average, they were 0.2 percentage points lower in July 2022 than in the previous month. 78% of individuals anticipated that inflation rates would continue to rise, while 8% expected a drop in interest rates over the next 12 months. Averaging 5.6% in July, the expected average rate of inflation over the next five years again increased only slightly.

Real estate price expectations
Expectations of individuals about changes in real estate prices

In July 2022, individuals in Germany predicted an increase in real estate prices of only 8.3% in their region on average over the next 12 months, compared with 9.6% in June. The median declined even more sharply, falling from 8% in June to 5% in July. The proportion of individuals anticipating real estate prices to decrease climbed from 9% to just under 15%.

Income expectations
Income growth expectations of individuals

In July 2022, consumers expected an increase in their household income of around just €50 on average over the next 12 months. Income expectations of people with lower household incomes showed a particularly significant decline.

Other findings
Macroeconomic expectation indicators

The Deutsche Bundesbank conducts regular surveys of households’ expectations for unemployment, economic growth, rent prices, real estate prices, and interest rates on savings and loans. These data are used to calculate index figures, from which corresponding trends can be easily derived.