Through its academic survey, the Research Centre of the Deutsche Bundesbank is obtaining a picture of the current situation among firms in Germany and gaining greater insight into their expectations for the coming months. Over time, the survey also provides crucial information on changes within the corporate sector.
Firms’ credit demand remained stable in the fourth quarter of 2023 – an unchanged 15% of firms reported having conducted credit negotiations in the previous quarter. Of those firms that conducted credit negotiations, an equally unchanged 26% reported that they had obtained credit both for the desired amount and at the desired conditions. The share of firms that obtained credit for the desired amount but at less favourable conditions dropped to 30% (Q3: 34%). Credit negotiations that concluded without a deal were reported by 20% of firms (Q3: 18%).
Looking at the past 12 months, there were once again fewer firms reporting decreased access to intermediate inputs in the fourth quarter of 2023 (22%) than in the previous quarter (24%). 21% of firms reported a reduction in their inventories in both quarters, while 23% saw an increase in Q4 (Q3: 24%). At 23%, slightly more firms reported a deterioration in their access to finance in the fourth quarter of 2023 than in the previous quarter (22%). At the same time, a slightly larger share of firms (33%) registered a decline in short-term liquidity (Q3: 32%). The share of firms reporting an increase in credit demand fell slightly from 27% in the previous quarter to 26% at present.
Marginally fewer firms expected a better access to intermediate inputs over the next 12 months in the fourth quarter of 2023 (16%) than in the previous quarter (17%). At the same time, access to intermediate inputs was expected to deteriorate by a somewhat smaller share of firms (17%) than in the previous quarter (18%). Reductions in inventories over the next 12 months were expected by 24% of firms (Q3: 23%). Expectations relating to short-term liquidity deteriorated again slightly. An increased share of firms (30%; Q3: 29%) expected a decline in this regard, while only 16% expected their liquidity situation to improve. A slightly higher proportion of firms (30%; Q3: 29%) expected credit demand to increase over the next 12 months. Only 15% of firms still expected a decline in credit demand over this period (Q3: 16%). The majority of firms (68%) continued to expect their access to finance to remain unchanged over the next 12 months, compared with 70% in the third quarter.
In September, the availability of qualified staff remained the greatest short-term challenge facing firms in Germany. 66% of firms considered this to be a pressing problem. High levels of regulation and government rules also pose a pressing problem for an increasing number of firms. The share of these firms in September (59%) represented the highest level since the start of the survey. At 56%, the share of firms that saw high production and labour costs as problematic for the next six months also remained at a high level. By contrast, the share of firms for which access to intermediate inputs is a pressing problem for the next six months is falling steadily. In September, it was only 14%.