BEGIN:VCALENDAR
VERSION:2.0
METHOD:PUBLISH
CALSCALE:GREGORIAN
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTAMP:20260514T045352Z
DTSTART:20250328T140000
SUMMARY:Inflation expectations and reality: implications for the last mil
 e of disinflation
TRANSP:TRANSPARENT
UID:2025_03_28_weber_940702
DESCRIPTION:As part of the Bundesbank Invited Speakers Series\, Bundesban
 k President Joachim Nagel discussed households’ perceptions of inflation
  with Michael Weber\, Associate Professor of Finance at the University o
 f Chicago Booth School of Business. \n\nIn his opening speech\, entitled
  “Inflation expectations and reality: implications for the last mile of 
 disinflation”\, Mr Weber presented the latest economic research findings
 . These showed that households’ expectations for inflation often deviate
 d from the officially recorded inflation rates. Mr Weber explained that 
 these deviations were linked to people’s sources of information\; their 
 perceptions were chiefly shaped by their shopping experiences and their 
 conversations with family and friends rather than by classic media.\n\nE
 veryday perceptions shape inflation expectations\n\nHouseholds’ percepti
 ons of inflation chiefly pertained to products and services they regular
 ly purchased\, such as food. According to Mr Weber\, the individual pric
 es of these everyday goods had a major impact on their inflation expecta
 tions. This also explained why such expectations differed by gender: men
  and women often had specific products in mind when they thought of infl
 ation (milk for women\, for instance\, or petrol for men). Moreover\, as
  women shopped more frequently for day-to-day essentials\, they often es
 timated inflation to be higher than men did. \n\nHigh inflation draws at
 tention but makes it harder to imagine change\n\nMr Weber also explored 
 the extent to which monetary policy communication by central banks can i
 nfluence inflation expectations. His research showed that in times of lo
 w inflation\, households paid scant attention to the subject\, making it
  harder to communicate with them.\n\nHowever\, once inflation rates rose
 \, people paid considerably more attention to price developments. They w
 ere then more receptive to information. Yet this was precisely where the
  challenge lay: it was difficult to convince people that inflation would
  fall again in future. After periods of high inflation\, it could be see
 n that public expectations of inflation declined more slowly than actual
  inflation rates.\n\nDialogue with Bundesbank President Nagel\n\nUnder t
 he moderation of Falko Fecht\, Head of the Bundesbank’s Research Centre\
 , Mr Weber went on to discuss with Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel ho
 w households’ perceptions of inflation influence monetary policy. Centra
 l bank communication was also a key factor here. “It is important that p
 rice stability becomes the focus of our attention\,” Mr Nagel said\, con
 tinuing: “Clear language\, clear messages and reducing complexity in our
  communications are important. I believe that we need to communicate mor
 e\, rather than less\, and more effectively too.” The topic of financial
  literacy\, the importance of which is still highly underestimated\, in 
 his view\, also plays a key role. \n\nAs part of the Bundesbank Invited 
 Speaker Series\, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel discusses current re
 search and central bank-related issues with researchers and academics. A
 t the most recent event\, he talked about resilience with economics prof
 essor Markus Brunnermeier.
LOCATION:Frankfurt/Main
CONTACT:Research Centre\, research-centre-office@bundesbank.de
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR