Research Brief
This publication by the Bundesbank Research Centre provides regular news about recent studies and discussion papers by Bundesbank research economists.
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© Maria Rita Quitadamo / ECBA KISS for central bank communication in times of high inflation 75th edition – May 2025
Central banks have used communication about the inflation outlook as an additional policy tool in response to the post-pandemic inflation surge. We present novel survey evidence that the ECB’s guidance about its projected inflation path can substantially lower households’ inflation expectations when kept in a sophisticatedly simple (KISS) way.
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© adamkaz / Getty ImagesGeopolitical risks are weighing on euro area and US foreign trade 74th edition – March 2025
In recent years, geopolitical risks have risen in many places. This not only has a direct impact on the countries affected, but also on international trade. In a new study, we show that rising geopolitical risks in trade partner countries dampen imports of goods, make them more expensive and impair supply chains. In addition, they are likely to be conducive to a fragmentation of global trade. Risks associated with China are particularly significant in this context.
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© Adobe Stock / LaSaFirms’ returns to scale: new evidence from European firm-level data Research Brief | 73rd edition – February 2025
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The advantages or disadvantages firms experience as a result of their size, referred to in the economic literature as returns to scale, are of central importance in many economic models. Increasing returns to scale, whereby unit costs decrease as output volume increases, could explain productivity differences between Europe and the United States. We present fresh evidence on the returns to scale of European firms: most exhibit constant returns to scale, but a non-trivial share also show increasing returns to scale.
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© Adobe Stock / Luciano Mortula-LGMHow do information advantages and regulation influence banks’ real estate activities in other European countries? Research Brief | 72nd edition – January 2025
A substantial share of bank loans of euro area banks is secured with real estate. In a new study, we examine whether, in the low interest rate environment, banks invested more in foreign real estate-backed lending. Our results suggest that regulatory differences between the bank’s home country and possible destination countries matter for banks’ search for yield.
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© © Masterfile Royalty-FreeHow the German natural gas market responds to supply and demand shocks Research Brief | 71st edition – November 2024
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered an energy crisis in 2022 that posed major challenges to the German economy and sparked broad debate on the economic ramifications of the marked rise in natural gas prices. In a new study, we examine the causes and consequences of this crisis and show how supply shocks and a surge in demand for natural gas storage impacted on natural gas prices and industrial production in Germany.