In recent years, geopolitical risks have risen in many places. This not only has a direct impact on the countries affected, but also on international trade. In a new study, we show that rising geopolitical risks in trade partner countries dampen imports of goods, make them more expensive and impair supply chains. In addition, they are likely to be conducive to a fragmentation of global trade. Risks associated with China are particularly significant in this context.

A substantial share of bank loans of euro area banks is secured with real estate. In a new study, we examine whether, in the low interest rate environment, banks invested more in foreign real estate-backed lending. Our results suggest that regulatory differences between the bank’s home country and possible destination countries matter for banks’ search for yield.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered an energy crisis in 2022 that posed major challenges to the German economy and sparked broad debate on the economic ramifications of the marked rise in natural gas prices. In a new study, we examine the causes and consequences of this crisis and show how supply shocks and a surge in demand for natural gas storage impacted on natural gas prices and industrial production in Germany.

Financial repression is intended to help the government deleverage over time, for example following crises, by artificially lowering the yield on government bonds. However, its impact on the deb-to-GDP ratio also depends on how it affects the economy as a whole, as financial repression also influences private investment and saving decisions. In view of these macroeconomic interrelationships, financial repression can lead to a net rise in the government debt-to-GDP ratio. A new study suggests that this is what happened in the United States following the Second World War.

Global systemically important banks (G-SIBs) have to comply with additional buffer requirements owing to their size and interconnectedness within the banking sector. The buffer level banks are expected to meet depends on their exposures at a certain point in time. A new study shows that G-SIBs reduce their exposures more strongly – twice as strongly, in fact – than other banks at period-end reporting dates. As a result, the buffer level may be too low to cover the additional risk associated with G-SIBs.