Survey on Consumer Expectations (BOP‑HH)

Customers in a shopping street ©Picture Alliance / Image Broker

What are households’ expectations? Since 2019, the Deutsche Bundesbank has been investigating this question by surveying households in Germany on a regular basis (Bundesbank Online Panel Households).

Inflation expectations

Average inflation expectations of individuals in Germany for the next 12 months did not change in March and remained at the previous month’s level of 3.1%. Compared with the start of the year (January: 3.4%), they fell by 0.3 percentage point. At 56%, more than half of individuals once again expected inflation rates to rise over this period (February: 53%, January: 57%). Average expectations for the inflation rate three years ahead remained unchanged at 3.3%, while average expectations for the next five years declined slightly by 0.1 percentage point to 3.0%.

Inflation expectations
Real estate price expectations

In March, individuals in Germany expected real estate prices in their region to rise by 5.1%, which represents an increase of 0.3 percentage point compared with the previous month’s expectations (4.8%). When asked about their qualitative expectations, 57% (February: 56%) of individuals expected real estate prices to increase and 8% (February: 9%) expected them to decrease over the next 12 months.

Real estate price expectations
Income expectations

In March, individuals expected their net household income to rise by an average of around €60 over the next 12 months (February: €70). Expectations still vary significantly when broken down by factors such as age group, gender and, in particular, household income. The median remains constant at €125. This can be explained by the fact that a large share of individuals have considered income growth of between €0 and €250 to be most likely each month since the survey was launched.

Income expectations
Other findings

The Deutsche Bundesbank conducts regular surveys of households’ expectations for unemployment, economic growth, rent prices, real estate prices, and interest rates on savings and loans. These data are used to calculate index figures, from which corresponding trends can be easily derived.

Other findings
Results from special questions

While the charts on the other webpages of this study illustrate the results of regularly asked core questions, here we show charts on an ad hoc basis mainly relating to special questions for research projects or policy advice.

Results from special questions
Background information

What is inflation? How is it measured? What role is played by inflation expectations? Why is the Deutsche Bundesbank interested in changes in uncertainty regarding inflation? The text and video featured on the following pages provide more information on these and similar questions.

Background information

Survey on Consumer Expectations (BOP-HH)