Survey on Consumer Expectations (BOP‑HH)

Customers in a shopping street ©Picture Alliance / Image Broker

What are households’ expectations? Since 2019, the Deutsche Bundesbank has been investigating this question by surveying households in Germany on a regular basis (Bundesbank Online Panel Households).

Inflation expectations

Average inflation expectations of households in Germany for the next 12 months rose in April for the first time this year, albeit only marginally. At 3.2%, they were 0.1 percentage point higher than in the previous two months. Once again, more than half of households expected inflation rates to rise over the next 12 months (April: 58%, March: 56%, February: 53%). Longer-term inflation expectations increased slightly as well. Average expectations for the inflation rate three years ahead were up on the month by 0.1 percentage point to 3.4%, while average expectations for the next five years declined slightly by 0.2 percentage point to 3.5%.

Inflation expectations
Real estate price expectations

In April, households in Germany adjusted their expectations for real estate prices in their region slightly downwards. With an expected increase of 5.0% for the next 12 months, they were 0.1 percentage point lower than the previous month’s figure of 5.1%. When asked about their qualitative expectations in April, 54% (March: 57%) of households expected real estate prices to increase and an unchanged 8% anticipated them to decrease during this period.

Real estate price expectations
Income expectations

In April, households expected their net household income to rise by an average of around €85 over the next 12 months. This represents an increase of around €25 in income growth expectations compared with the previous month. Expectations still vary significantly when broken down by factors such as household income, gender and, in particular, age group. The median remains constant at €125. This can be explained by the fact that a large share of individuals have considered income growth of between €0 and €250 to be most likely each month since this survey was launched.

Income expectations
Other findings

The Deutsche Bundesbank conducts regular surveys of households’ expectations for unemployment, economic growth, rent prices, real estate prices, and interest rates on savings and loans. These data are used to calculate index figures, from which corresponding trends can be easily derived.

Other findings
Results from special questions

While the charts on the other webpages of this study illustrate the results of regularly asked core questions, here we show charts on an ad hoc basis mainly relating to special questions for research projects or policy advice.

Results from special questions
Background information

What is inflation? How is it measured? What role is played by inflation expectations? Why is the Deutsche Bundesbank interested in changes in uncertainty regarding inflation? The text and video featured on the following pages provide more information on these and similar questions.

Background information