Survey on Consumer Expectations

Customers in a shopping street ©Picture Alliance / Image Broker

Survey on Consumer Expectations (Bundesbank Online Panel – Households / BOP-HH)

What are households’ expectations? Since 2019, the Deutsche Bundesbank has been investigating this question by surveying households in Germany on a regular basis. The most recent survey was conducted from 16 to 31 March 2026.

Inflation expectations

The average inflation expectations of households in Germany for the next 12 months increased by 0.8 percentage point in March to 3.5 %. They have thus reached their highest level in this study since February 2024 (3.6 %). In response to a qualitative question on inflation rate developments, the share of households expecting inflation rates to rise during this period grew by 28 percentage points on the previous month to 80 %. This is the highest value recorded by this survey since October 2022. Average expectations for the inflation rate in three years’ time rose in March, climbing by 0.3 percentage point to 3.4 %. Expectations for the average over the next five years remained stable at 3.3 %.

Inflation expectations
Real estate price expectations

In March, households in Germany expected real estate prices in their region to rise by an average of 5.4 % over the next 12 months, which represents an increase of 0.6 percentage point compared with the previous month. When asked about their qualitative expectations in March, 59 % of households expected real estate prices to increase and 8 % expected them to decrease during this period (February: 61 % and 7 %, respectively).

Real estate price expectations
Income expectations

In March, households expected an average increase in their monthly net household income of around €50 over the next 12 months. Expectations are thus somewhat below those in February (€60). In addition, expectations vary significantly when broken down by factors such as household income, gender and age group. The median remained constant at €125. This can be explained by the fact that a large share of households have considered income growth of between €0 and €250 to be most likely each month since this survey was launched.

Income expectations
Other findings

The Deutsche Bundesbank conducts regular surveys of households’ expectations for unemployment, economic growth, rent prices, real estate prices, and interest rates on savings and loans. These data are used to calculate index figures, from which corresponding trends can be easily derived.

Other findings
Results from special questions

While the charts on the other webpages of this study illustrate the results of regularly asked core questions, here we show charts on an ad hoc basis mainly relating to special questions for research projects or policy advice.

Results from special questions
Background information

What is inflation? How is it measured? What role is played by inflation expectations? Why is the Deutsche Bundesbank interested in changes in uncertainty regarding inflation? The text and video featured on the following pages provide more information on these and similar questions.

Background information

Survey on Consumer Expectations (BOP‑HH)