1 Introduction

Ladies and Gentlemen,

It is a great honour to address you today at the Currency Conference 2025, here in the vibrant city of Bangkok. I would like to extend my heartfelt gratitude to the organizers for bringing us together in this inspiring setting.

Bangkok, much like the broader East Asian region, exemplifies how tradition and modernity can not only coexist but also mutually reinforce one another. We observe a similar dynamic in the world of payments, where innovative digital payment methods operate alongside the trusted reliability of cash transactions. Together, these elements create a well-functioning system that serves the diverse interests of our societies.

However, this balance is increasingly under pressure. The declining use of cash, combined with the rapid digitalization of finance, presents significant challenges. Across many countries, we are witnessing concerning trends: ATMs and bank branches are gradually disappearing, and some businesses are beginning to refuse cash as a form of payment. If these developments continue unchecked, the everyday usability of cash could be at serious risk.

We are standing at a crossroads. If we want to preserve cash as a viable payment option, we must act decisively. It is imperative that all stakeholders in the cash cycle—central banks, commercial banks, retailers, and technology companies—acknowledge the urgency of the situation and rise to the occasion. As a Thai proverb wisely advises, "When the water rises, scoop it quickly." The time to act is now, before the currents of change carry us away.

Let us envision the payment system as a ship navigating through turbulent seas. While the waters may seem calm for now, dark clouds loom on the horizon—distant but impossible to ignore. This is the moment to chart our course, ready the ship, and embark on this journey together.

2 The role of central banks

Central banks have always played a pivotal role in the payment system. They issue cash, operate payment systems, and contribute to the development and enforcement of regulations. Today, however, we face a significant challenge: transforming the cash ecosystem in a world increasingly shaped by digital payments.

Even as we navigate these sometimes turbulent waters, our objectives remain clear: to guarantee a payment system that is efficient, accessible, and safe for everyone. In my view, such a system should embrace both digital payment options and cash. Ultimately, it is not about choosing one over the other—it is about creating harmony between the analog and digital worlds, and about aligning tradition with innovation.

Digital payments undoubtedly bring many benefits. They are convenient for consumers and businesses alike and can be seamlessly integrated into digital processes. However, cash, as an analog instrument, offers unique advantages that cannot be overlooked. It protects privacy, fosters inclusivity, and enhances the resilience of our economies in times of crisis or disruption.

At the Bundesbank, our primary objective is to ensure that people have the freedom to choose their preferred payment instruments. This also means ensuring that consumers can continue to use cash if they wish.

And, in fact, many consumers still choose cash. Our regular surveys on payment behavior reveal that, in 2023, nearly half of all transactions in Germany were settled in cash. Despite the steady increase in cashless transactions, cash remains the most widely used payment instrument. Furthermore, 72 percent of the population believes that cash is fairly important or very important for our society. Notably, two-thirds of people in Germany hope that cash usage will remain the same 15 years from now as it is today.

These findings underscore the importance of preserving the choice between cash and digital payments. It is our responsibility to ensure that this choice remains available—not just today, but also in the future.

3 The looming downward spiral

Ladies and Gentlemen, 

Before taking action, we must first understand the key factors shaping the future of cash. To this end, the “Cash of the Future” study, commissioned by the Bundesbank, uses three scenarios to systematically explore the potential framework for cash in the years ahead.

The first scenario, “The hyperdigital payment world”, describes a highly digitalized world where cash has largely disappeared from everyday life. In this world, cash is used in only 15 percent of all transactions.

The second scenario, “A cash renaissance payment world”, depicts a partial comeback of cash. Here, society rediscovers some of the unique advantages of physical money, and the decline in cash usage slows.

The third scenario, “The vanishing hybrid payment world”, describes a gradual decline in the importance of cash, though it continues to coexist with other means of payment. In this scenario, the share of cash transactions falls to around 30 percent, while access to and acceptance of cash slowly deteriorate. No action is taken to stabilize the cash ecosystem, and as a result, cash enters a downward spiral.

These scenarios are not forecasts, and it remains uncertain whether any of them will materialize. However, the data-driven scenarios provide valuable insights into potential developments that could shape the future of cash. Without counteracting measures, a downward spiral for the cash infrastructure appears possible.

Lower cash usage could result in the closure of ATMs and bank branches, making it increasingly difficult for consumers to access cash. Reduced access, in turn, could further decrease usage, potentially justifying additional closures. This cycle could trigger a self-reinforcing downward spiral.

Changes in the cash infrastructure would also have significant implications for retailers. Key services, such as deposit facilities or the supply of small-denomination banknotes and coins for change, could be affected. Rising costs for cash handling might reduce retailers’ willingness to accept cash, putting additional pressure on both access to and acceptance of cash.

This development could ultimately lead to a gradual loss of choice. If consumers are unable to obtain cash—or if retailers choose not to accept it—cash risks becoming an exception. And what becomes an exception may eventually fade away.

Today, cash remains widely available and generally accepted in Germany and many other countries. However, in light of the looming downward spiral, this broad availability and general acceptance can no longer be taken for granted.

4 Strategies and actions

At the Bundesbank, we have already taken decisive action to address the challenges facing the future of cash. A key element of our efforts is the modernization and strategic realignment of our branch network. Through targeted investments, we are establishing new, modern locations in logistically favorable areas. These locations ensure an efficient, capable, and future-ready cash supply.

This strategy is further supported by the National Cash Forum, which we launched last year. In this forum, we regularly bring together representatives from the banking sector, retail, consumer associations, and cash service providers. Together, we share one common goal: to develop unified standards, identify problems, and coordinate solutions. This forum represents a significant step toward a cooperative understanding of the cash cycle as a shared responsibility. After all, no single participant can ensure the stability of the system alone.

Importantly, this forum has proven to be more than just talk—it delivers real results. Recently, the National Cash Forum advocated for the introduction of a voluntary rounding rule in German retail. The aim of this initiative is to reduce the use of small coins and make cash usage more attractive overall. This decision has been widely welcomed and demonstrates the practical impact that cooperative formats can achieve.

Yet, Ladies and Gentlemen, these initiatives alone are not enough. We need a broader strategy—one that operates nationally, across Europe, and in international dialogue. Countries are addressing the transformation of payment systems in very different ways.

In Sweden and the Netherlands, for example, we see how widespread digital payments have become—but also the risks that arise when cash is largely crowded out. In other countries, we observe how important cash remains—not only in everyday life but also as a safety net in times of crisis. We should learn from these international experiences. While not everything can be directly copied, the smartest solutions often emerge from this diversity.

So, what is our roadmap for the future? In practical terms, we must ensure both access to and acceptance of cash. While we cannot—and do not want to—interfere with how people choose to pay, we must preserve everyone’s ability to pay in the way they prefer.

Smart infrastructure planning and technical innovation can help secure access to cash and related services. New partnerships—with banks, service providers, and platforms—could lead to practical, low-barrier deposit solutions for both urban and rural areas. Additionally, investments are necessary: in modern ATMs, efficient logistics, and innovative solutions for underserved regions.

This requires responsibility—not only on the part of central banks but also from financial institutions. While the traditional, bank-based infrastructure is deteriorating, new options for accessing cash, such as withdrawing it at store checkouts, have emerged. These additions are certainly helpful, but they are not a replacement for the cash infrastructure provided by credit institutions. Such options often come with purchase conditions, are not widely available, and do not reliably meet larger cash needs. For retailers, these alternatives are often not viable.

Ladies and Gentlemen, without a reliable infrastructure—a sufficient number of ATMs, branches, and deposit facilities—the supply of cash is at risk of being eroded. Against this background, it is crucial that credit institutions continue to take responsibility for operating an adequate cash infrastructure.

In a potential downward spiral, access to and acceptance of cash are interlinked and can negatively reinforce each other. However, the same mechanism can also work in a positive way: strengthening access to cash and related services can create more favorable conditions for retailers to accept cash. Thus, promoting access to cash also supports broader acceptance.

In some countries, rules governing the availability and acceptance of cash are being considered. In this regard, I welcome the European Commission’s legislative proposal on the legal tender status of euro cash. This proposal aims to safeguard the role of cash by ensuring that it is widely accepted and remains available. Under this framework, Member States of the European Union would be required to monitor both cash acceptance and access—and to take appropriate measures should problems arise.

And let us not forget: we must raise awareness about the importance of cash. We need to speak openly about its value—not as a contradiction to digitalization, but as its complement. This involves education, public communication, and a clear understanding of how politics and institutions perceive their role in this context.

Ladies and Gentlemen, while traditional players remain important, we must also look beyond them. We need to embrace new perspectives by partnering with diverse associations, initiatives, and interest groups—such as organizations for the visually impaired, senior citizen groups, or community-focused platforms. Engaging with these groups, understanding their viewpoints, and stepping out of our usual networks will be essential.

It is only by embracing new ideas that we can ensure a cash supply that is truly future-proof.

5 Future outlook and conclusions

Ladies and Gentlemen,

The future of payments stands at a crossroads. If we want cash to remain a viable payment option, we must take action. Access to and acceptance of cash—these two pillars must remain strong. No individual and no business should be forced to abandon cash simply because it has become too difficult to use.

We must ensure that cash does not become an exception—neither for consumers nor for businesses. Therefore, my appeal to you is this: Let us shape the future together—with foresight, determination, and a proactive spirit. Each of us—institutions, policymakers, businesses, and society—can and must contribute to this effort. Together, we can ensure that cash remains an integral part of a modern, resilient payment infrastructure.

Let us prepare the payments ship to set sail. The balance between tradition and modernity will serve as our compass. With a clear direction and a steady hand, we can avoid the downward spiral. And if the storm comes and the waters rise, we will scoop it out—side by side.

In this way, we stay in control—even in turbulent times.

Thank you for your attention and for staying the course as we navigate the path ahead.