The June 2019 edition of the Bundesbank’s Monthly Report outlines the prospects for the German economy on the basis of projections for 2019 and 2020 and looks ahead at the year 2021. It also covers the overhaul of European banking regulation and features an analysis of the costs associated with different means of payment in the retail sector. Lastly, the changing face of payments services is explored, with reference to instant payments, PSD2 and new competitors.

Whenever financial markets react to ECB Governing Council meetings, the explanation seems obvious: the Governing Council surprised markets, for instance, by changing its policy rate or by hinting at a future rate change. Any market reaction would thus stem from unexpected announcements about monetary policy. The response of different asset prices such as bond yields and stock prices, however, often contradicts this simple explanation. A new study indicates that these seemingly puzzling reactions are driven by information about the economic outlook that the ECB reveals via its announcements.