Announcements of policy actions may influence households’ expectations about future individual and aggregate economic outcomes. We show that households have lowered their expectations with regard to the economic situation and that uncertainty about the economy increased during the initial stage of the COVID-19 pandemic. We also show that households who received information on stabilizing monetary and fiscal policy measures, surprisingly, become more pessimistic concerning their future income and GDP growth.

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The October 2020 edition of the Monthly Report analyses developments in the German banking system during the negative interest rate phase and outlines patterns of international business cycles. It also features an article on the protracted rise in real estate prices in Germany from a macroeconomic perspective, taking into account transmission channels and fundamental determinants. Finally, the report explains state government budget figures for 2019.

In the first half of 2020, the global coronavirus pandemic led to the most severe economic slump in Germany in decades. Governments and central banks around the world have taken extensive measures to stabilise the economy as well as labour and financial markets.