The German economy is not only struggling with persistent economic headwinds, but also with structural problems, said Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel, presenting the Bundesbank’s new Forecast for Germany. The Bundesbank projects a slight decline of 0.2 % in real gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024 and only a slight rise in 2025. The labour market, too, is now responding noticeably to the protracted weakness of the economy. The inflation rate remains elevated in 2025, but is likely to return to 2 % in the years that follow.

German economic output contracted in the final quarter of 2023, according to the February Monthly Report. Weak demand from abroad was still putting a strain on industry, while higher financing costs continued to dampen investment. Bundesbank economists believe that uncertainty about transformation and climate policy is also likely to have weighed on economic activity. Some headwinds will probably persist into the first quarter of 2024 as well. Economic output could therefore decline again somewhat.