According to the Bundesbank's latest Monthly Report, the first double-digit inflation rate in 70 years and a high degree of uncertainty about energy supply and its costs are weighing significantly on the German economy. In the forthcoming final quarter of 2022 and first quarter of 2023, economic output could therefore fall considerably and Germany be on the brink of a recession. However, the extent of this decline is extremely uncertain, according to the report.

“The budgets of the state governments and their local governments shaped up very well in the second year of the coronavirus pandemic,” the Bundesbank writes in its Monthly Report. According to the publication, they recorded an overall surplus of €5 billion in 2021. Despite the favourable state of their finances, state governments made use of emergency borrowing totalling €18 billion under their respective debt brakes. Based on the Bundesbank’s calculations, a large part of these funds was used to top up reserves. It appears that budgetary developments will be favourable this year, too. The Bundesbank sees no need for further emergency borrowing. The positive financial situation will allow state governments to play a part in tackling the energy crisis.

The worsening energy crisis, a sharp economic slump and abruptly rising market interest rates could put the financial system in Germany under considerable pressure. “To ensure that potential stress is not amplified via the financial system, financial institutions must be sufficiently resilient on their own,” said Claudia Buch, Vice-President of the Deutsche Bundesbank, at the presentation of the 2022 Financial Stability Review. “Financial institutions should assess the impact of adverse scenarios. Given the high uncertainty, they should engage in prudent risk provisioning and exercise caution when distributing profits,” emphasised Bundesbank Executive Board member Joachim Wuermeling.

Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier has appointed Joachim Nagel President of the Deutsche Bundesbank. Mr Steinmeier presented the certificate of appointment to Mr Nagel, who holds a PhD in economics, at Schloss Bellevue on 7 January. The ceremony marking the change of office for the tenth President of the Bundesbank will take place on 11 January in Frankfurt and will be streamed live.