In the current issue of its Monthly Report, the Bundesbank uses scenario calculations to analyse the potential macroeconomic impact of a further escalation of the war against Ukraine. According to the experts, German real GDP this year could be down by as much as 2% compared with 2021. The inflation rate in Germany in 2022 could be 1½ percentage points higher than expected in the European Central Bank’s March projection.

German banks tightened their credit standards for loans to enterprises marginally in the second quarter 2022. In the case of loans to households for house purchase, the tightening of credit standards was stronger than at any other time since the introduction of the BLS. Credit standards for consumer credit and other lending were also tightened.

The Bundesbank has significantly raised its forecast for German economic growth for this year and the next. Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann expects the trajectory of growth to be sustained in equal measure by domestic and foreign demand. However, he sees risks of a setback to economic recovery in the euro area.