Prof. Dr. Axel A. Weber, President of the Deutsche Bundesbank, Challenges for monetary policy in the financial crisis

The trade dispute between the United States and China in 2018 and 2019 increased trade policy uncertainty, leading to a marked appreciation of the US dollar (USD). The obvious explanation for this is the special role played by USD investments in the global financial system as a safe haven for investors in times of high uncertainty. The USD appreciation triggered in this way in 2018 and 2019 enabled Chinese exporters to lower their prices in US dollars. As a result, the impact of the additional import tariffs imposed at the time by the United States on Chinese products was significantly reduced.

An improved net result of financial operations, write-downs and risk provisioning caused a slight increase in the Bundesbank's profit in 2015. At the same time, the Bundesbank's net interest income was lower than at any time since monetary union was launched.

How will cash be used in the future? A recent Bundesbank study has investigated this question, outlining three different scenarios for cash payments in 2037. The study provides an idea of the social and economic environment in which cash will be embedded in the future.

Professor Axel A Weber, President of the Deutsche Bundesbank, Keynote Speech held at the 18th Conference of the European Association for Banking and Financial History e. V.