Outlook for the German economy – macroeconomic projections for 2015 and 2016

A new weekly activity index (WAI) published by the Bundesbank is designed to measure real economic activity in Germany in a timely manner. Measured by the WAI, economic activity between 16 March and 14 June 2020 was 7.4% below the activity recorded between 16 December 2019 and 15 March 2020.

Germany’s current account recorded a surplus of €21.3 billion in November 2020, down €1.6 billion from the previous month’s level. This was primarily attributable to a decrease in the goods account surplus. By contrast, the surplus in invisible current transactions, which comprise services as well as primary and secondary income, expanded only slightly.

Germany’s current account recorded a surplus of €26.3 billion in September 2020, up €9.7 billion from the previous month’s level.

A new weekly activity index (WAI) for the German economy has been developed at the Bundesbank to assess the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the economy from a near-time perspective. The Bundesbank is using this new indicator as an input in its short-term economic analysis.

“Economic output in Germany is likely to have risen sharply in the third quarter of 2020,” the Bundesbank writes in its latest Monthly Report. As measured by quarterly gross domestic product, the German economy may have already recouped slightly more than half of the dramatic losses sustained in the first half of the year. According to the experts, there will probably be only a relatively small rise in economic output in the current quarter.