Survey on Consumer Expectations

Customers in a shopping street ©Picture Alliance / Image Broker

What are households’ expectations? Since 2019, the Deutsche Bundesbank has been investigating this question by surveying households in Germany on a regular basis (Bundesbank Online Panel Households).

Inflation expectations

In March, consumers in Germany expected inflation of 3.3% on average over the next 12 months, which was once again below the previous month’s figure (3.6%) and thus the lowest value since August 2021. Accordingly, the share of individuals expecting an increase in inflation over the next 12 months sank by 4 percentage points to 33%. Average inflation expectations three years ahead also fell slightly – from 3.7% in February to 3.6%.

Inflation expectations
Real estate price expectations

With an increase of 3.6%, average expectations for real estate price developments over the next 12 months were somewhat higher in March than in February (3.3%). These have therefore been below the 4% mark since November 2023 and thus at the lowest level since the start of the survey. March saw 38% of individuals expecting real estate prices in their region to rise over the next 12 months and 28% anticipating them to fall in the same period.

Real estate price expectations
Income expectations

Expectations regarding income developments over the next 12 months improved again in March, with individuals anticipating an increase of around €170. This rise is particularly significant when compared with expectations at the beginning of the year (January: €80). In addition, positive expectations can be seen in all income groups, although the absolute size of the expected increases rises with income.

Income expectations
Other findings

The Deutsche Bundesbank conducts regular surveys of households’ expectations for unemployment, economic growth, rent prices, real estate prices, and interest rates on savings and loans. These data are used to calculate index figures, from which corresponding trends can be easily derived.

Other findings
Background information

What is inflation? How is it measured? What role is played by inflation expectations? Why is the Deutsche Bundesbank interested in changes in uncertainty regarding inflation? The text and video featured on the following pages provide more information on these and similar questions.

Background information