Survey on Consumer Expectations (BOP‑HH)

Customers in a shopping street ©Picture Alliance / Image Broker

What are households’ expectations? Since 2019, the Deutsche Bundesbank has been investigating this question by surveying households in Germany on a regular basis (Bundesbank Online Panel Households).

Inflation expectations

The average inflation expectations for the next 12 months among households in Germany rose slightly in June after falling significantly between April and May. At 2.9 %, they were 0.1 percentage point over the previous month’s figure. The share of households expecting inflation rates to rise over the next 12 months increased by 5 percentage points on the month, from 45 % in May 2025 to 50 % in June. Average expectations for the inflation rate three years ahead increased slightly by 0.1 percentage point over the previous month, reaching 3.1 %. Inflation rate expectations relative to the average of the next 5 years stood at 3.2 % in June compared with 3.3 % in May.

Inflation expectations
Real estate price expectations

In June, households in Germany again adjusted their expectations for real estate prices in their region upwards slightly. With an expected increase of 5.4 % for the next 12 months, they were 0.1 percentage point higher than the previous month’s figure of 5.3 %. When asked about their qualitative expectations in June, 60 % (May: 61 %) of households expected real estate prices to increase and 7 % (May: 5 %) expected them to decrease during this period.

Real estate price expectations
Income expectations

In June, households expected their net household income to rise by an average of around €120 over the next 12 months. Average expected income growth has thus risen for the fourth consecutive month (March: around €60, April: around €85; May: around €105). Expectations still vary significantly when broken down by factors such as household income, gender and, in particular, age group. The median remains constant at €125. This can be explained by the fact that a large share of individuals have considered income growth of between €0 and €250 to be most likely each month since this survey was launched.

Income expectations
Other findings

The Deutsche Bundesbank conducts regular surveys of households’ expectations for unemployment, economic growth, rent prices, real estate prices, and interest rates on savings and loans. These data are used to calculate index figures, from which corresponding trends can be easily derived.

Other findings
Results from special questions

While the charts on the other webpages of this study illustrate the results of regularly asked core questions, here we show charts on an ad hoc basis mainly relating to special questions for research projects or policy advice.

Results from special questions
Background information

What is inflation? How is it measured? What role is played by inflation expectations? Why is the Deutsche Bundesbank interested in changes in uncertainty regarding inflation? The text and video featured on the following pages provide more information on these and similar questions.

Background information