doi.org/10.71734/TP‑2026‑2

Abstract

In the euro area, inflation is measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). Contributions of specific products to the overall inflation rate are derived by what is known as the Ribe approach. While this approach can be applied to the monthly HICP indices, it cannot be used for the annual HICP averages published by statistical offices, nor can it be used to calculate contributions to inflation over multiple years. This paper develops a generalization of Ribe’s approach that overcomes both limitations. For annually chain-linked Laspeyres-type indices and their quarterly and annual averages, the proposed method allows contributions to price changes to be derived over arbitrary time periods. The resulting contributions consistently sum to the overall price change. As such, the method provides a useful tool for long-term monetary policy analysis. An application to HICP data shows that services have been the main driver of inflation in the euro area since 2002.

Schwind, P., S. Weinand (2026), Contributions to euro area inflation over arbitrary time periods, Technical Paper, No 02/2026