This publication by the Bundesbank Research Centre provides regular news about recent studies and discussion papers by Bundesbank research economists.
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How the US dollar, as a reserve currency, restricts US trade policy Research Brief | 58th edition – May 2023
The trade dispute between the United States and China in 2018 and 2019 increased trade policy uncertainty, leading to a marked appreciation of the US dollar (USD). The obvious explanation for this is the special role played by USD investments in the global financial system as a safe haven for investors in times of high uncertainty. The USD appreciation triggered in this way in 2018 and 2019 enabled Chinese exporters to lower their prices in US dollars. As a result, the impact of the additional import tariffs imposed at the time by the United States on Chinese products was significantly reduced.
The effectiveness of green collateral policy as an instrument of climate policy Research Brief | 57th edition – April 2023
The debate surrounding climate change mitigation measures has lately also extended to central bank instruments. One of the points under discussion is the preferential treatment of green bonds in central bank monetary policy operations. This would improve the financing conditions of firms with low emissions and thus create an incentive for green investment. Using a novel model, we analyse the climate policy and macroeconomic implications of a green-tilted collateral policy and are able to identify only minor effects on green investment.
Negative interest rate policy led to negative interest rates on corporate deposits and higher fees Research Brief | 56th edition – March 2023
The Eurosystem’s negative interest rate policy (NIRP) incentivised banks to also charge their customers negative deposit rates. My analysis shows that German banks did actually charge negative interest rates on corporate deposits at times. However, the banks that did so were primarily those which relied heavily on household deposits as a source of funding. These banks were very reluctant to apply negative interest rates to household deposits as well, and thus probably faced particularly high margin pressure. It was primarily these banks that also charged higher fees in order to ease this pressure.
Lower TARGET2 payment flows due to EU sanctions against Russia Research Brief | 55th edition – February 2023
In recent years, the European Union has imposed various types of financial sanctions against Russian banks. A new study examines whether these measures have affected payment flows in TARGET2.
The exchange rate regime is key for the effects of the Bundesbank’s monetary policy on European countries from 1974 to 1998 Research Brief | 54th edition – December 2022
Record inflation in the euro area has led the ECB Governing Council to start raising its key interest rates. The effects on the domestic economy and spillover effects on foreign countries may primarily depend on whether exchange rates are floating or fixed. A new empirical study shows that, during the time of the Deutschmark, the Bundesbank’s monetary policy was transmitted to a significantly greater degree to neighbouring European countries with fixed exchange rates to the Deutschmark than to those with floating exchange rates to the Deutschmark.
Individuals in Germany have suffered financial losses during the pandemic Research Brief | 53rd edition – September 2022
A Bundesbank survey shows that individuals living in Germany suffered different types of financial losses during the pandemic. Primarily individuals with lower incomes reported losses in wages and salaries which persisted much longer than other financial losses, such as falling securities prices. The latter were frequently reported at the start of the pandemic, but were subsequently offset at least partly, according to the respondents. It was mainly the more persistent wage and salary losses that changed households’ consumption and saving decisions. Altered saving and consumption behaviour can, in turn, affect the transmission of monetary policy measures.
On the replenishment of securitised portfolios and the role of reputation and trans-parency in the securitisation market Research Brief | 52nd edition – August 2022
In a securitisation, a clearly defined and immutable loan portfolio is removed from a bank’s balance sheet and converted into marketable securities – that is the general understanding of how securitisation works. However, contrary to this view, the composition of securitised loan portfolios may change during the life of the securities. A new study explains why this is the case and examines the impact of replenishment on the quality of securitised portfolios. Originators’ reputation and transparency in the securitisation market are identified as key determinants in the selection of loans used to replenish securitised portfolios.
What Moves Markets? Research Brief | 51st edition – August 2022
Are asset prices driven by news or by factors unrelated to economic fundamentals, such as market sentiment? In most asset pricing models news play a dominant role, but most empirical applications find only a low explanatory power of news. A new study examines this problem using an extensive time-stamped event database and finds that about half of all high-frequency market movements can be attributed to news.
How much foreign currency must a central bank buy to implement a minimum exchange rate? Estimation using the Swiss National Bank as an example Research Brief | 50th edition – July 2022
Implementing a minimum exchange rate regime by buying foreign currency eases monetary conditions domestically and may thus have a direct impact on the inflation rate. However, such foreign currency purchases involve a risky expansion of the central bank’s balance sheet total. A new model can now predict what expansion of the balance sheet a central bank must expect if it wishes to implement a minimum exchange rate in the foreign exchange market.
How internationally coordinated carbon pricing would affect the economy and welfare Research Brief | 49th edition – June 2022
Climate change is a global challenge that requires international policy coordination. This conclusion is also borne out in a recent study on the macroeconomics implications of carbon pricing. Several different scenarios are considered – different regions introduce carbon pricing schemes unilaterally or in cooperation, and in the presence or absence of border adjustment schemes.