Bei der Jahrestagung des Internationalen Währungsfonds (IWF) und der Weltbank hat Bundesbankpräsident Joachim Nagel über die Herausforderungen des angespannten geopolitischen Umfelds gesprochen. Übereinstimmende Analysen und Studien zeigten, dass mehr Zölle, mehr handelspolitische Unsicherheit zu spürbar weniger globalem Wachstum führen. Auch die deutsche Konjunktur war Thema in Washington.

The current decade could mark a turning point in the international division of labour. The coronavirus pandemic and Russia’s attack on Ukraine caused severe disruptions to international supply chains. Production relationships could undergo lasting change owing to the two events, the Bundesbank’s economists write in the October Monthly Report. In their article, they explore whether this is already being reflected in Germany’s foreign direct investment (FDI) relationships.

According to the current issue of the Bundesbank’s Monthly Report, real gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to have contracted again somewhat in the third quarter of 2024. Output in the industrial sector and in construction is expected to have declined markedly. Despite favourable conditions, private consumption probably likewise provided only little impetus.