La courbe de Phillips remonte à l'économiste britannique Alban William Phillips, qui a observé pour les années 1861 à 1957 un lien entre le taux de croissance des salaires nominaux et le taux de chômage. Dans sa variante initiale, la courbe donne ainsi l'impression qu'il existe un choix entre chômage et inflation. Du point de vue empirique, il s'est toutefois avéré qu'une relation aussi simple n'existe pas. Au cours des 50 dernières années, la courbe de Phillips a fait l'objet à plusieurs reprises de discussions controversées qui ont donné lieu à de nombreuses modifications de la courbe.

16. Juni 2025

The Phillips curve was invented by UK economist Alban William Phillips, who observed a correlation between nominal wage growth and the unemployment rate for the period 1861 to 1957. The original version of the curve implies a trade-off between unemployment and inflation. Empirical evidence shows, however, that the relationship is not nearly as simple as that. Over the past 50 years, the Phillips curve has time and again been hotly debated, leading to numerous modifications.

The Deutsche Bundesbank has not been provided with any supervisory powers in the areas mentioned. The compliance system described here exclusively covers internal Bundesbank rules and mechanisms. In particular, the Deutsche Bundesbank is not responsible for receiving reports of violations of supervisory provisions, compliance with which is monitored by the Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin). In these cases, please contact BaFin if necessary.

Federal Financial Supervisory Authority
bafin.de