The December 2023 Monthly Report projects how the German economy is likely to develop up until 2026. It also features an article discussing model-based recommendations for monetary policy decision-making. In addition, the report analyses the profitability and financing of German enterprises in 2022. A further contribution examines the challenges and current situation with regard to the regulation of crypto assets.

The macroeconomic environment is being shaped by the interest rate reversal and heightened uncertainty. So far, the German financial system has coped well with the rise in interest rates over the last year, but the effects of this rise have not yet fully materialised. Structural change in the economy is also likely to further increase credit risk.

The November 2023 edition of the Monthly Report comments on the economic situation in Germany in autumn 2023.

The October 2023 edition of the Monthly Report examines whether German and euro area price competitiveness is favourable. It also describes how state government finances developed in 2022 and finds that, despite large surpluses overall, recourse to emergency loans was extensive in some cases.

German credit institutions’ performance tended to deteriorate in 2022, Bundesbank experts write in the current issue of the Monthly Report. Profit for the financial year before tax did manage to creep up on the whole and, at €27.4 billion, remained well above the long-term average. However, this was driven mainly by a one-off effect at one institution. According to the Bundesbank, most categories of banks recorded significantly lower annual profit for the reporting year than in 2021.

The German economy is under considerable pressure to adapt, writes the Bundesbank in its September Monthly Report. Challenges are arising mainly from demographic change and the transition to a low-emission energy supply. Moreover, dependency on China for the procurement of key intermediate inputs entails risk. In the midset of the current debate concerning Germany’s alleged status as the “sick man of Europe”, the Bundesbank still sees the German economy as well positioned. According to our analyses, broad-based deindustrialisation is not on the table either, says Marcus Jüppner, co-author of the report. 

German economic output is likely to contract somewhat in the third quarter of 2023, the Bundesbank writes in its Monthly Report. It is unlikely that private consumption will offer any discernible positive impetus. Households are still reluctant to spend despite the slight easing in price inflation, strong wage growth and favourable labour market. In addition, weak industry is weighing on economic output.