Objective

In many regions, monetary policy decisions are largely based on the economic outlook. Analyses of current conditions and structural developments provide a strong pillar in this regard. This five-day course provides an overview of the analytical and modelling work by Bundesbank experts in the context of the monetary policy formulation process in the euro area. The focus is on practical aspects of macroeconomic analysis and current topical analyses. Our experts will give an insight into their methods when analysing macroeconomic developments, providing an overview of the models and tools used in a broad range of macroeconomic areas. In addition, the course will highlight analytical approaches to topics such as environmental aspects or trade agreements.

Contents

• Analysis and forecasting of the international environment
• Analytical tools underpinning the Bundesbank’s short-term forecasting toolbox
• Inflation analysis and forecasting
• Labour market and wage developments
• Analytical tools for real estate price analysis
• The Bundesbank’s Environmental Multi-Sector DSGE Model EMuSe
• Simulation exercise and scenario analysis with macroeconometric models
• Evaluating Trade Policies with Staggered Difference-in-Differences: a Practical Introduction
• Research projects related to macroeconomics and financial markets

Target group

Mid-level central bank officials working in the area of macroeconomic analysis or projections. Candidates who wish to apply for the course should have a sound grasp of macroeconomic theory. They are expected to have a good understanding of basic econometrics and experience in the use of commonly used modelling techniques. 

Participants knowledgeable in the following areas are invited to contribute short presentations based on their own expertise in this field to facilitate an interactive course:

• analysis of microdata for inflation analysis and forecasting;
• analysis of international trade and trade policy;
• analysis of labour markets or wage dynamics.

Please note:

This course does not cover topics related to the deeper analysis of monetary and financial developments, which are addressed in a separate course. Nor does it provide an introduction to econometrics.