Der EZB-Rat hat heute beschlossen, die drei Leitzinssätze der EZB unverändert zu belassen. Die neu verfügbaren Daten haben unsere bisherige Einschätzung der mittelfristigen Inflationsaussichten weitgehend bestätigt.

The German economy is still experiencing a period of weakness. According to the Federal Statistical Office’s flash estimate, in the second quarter of 2023, seasonally adjusted real gross domestic product (GDP) stagnated at the level recorded in the previous quarter. The current issue of the Bundesbank’s Monthly Report reports that weak foreign demand and higher financing costs are weighing on the economy. The large backlog of orders in industry and construction and abating supply bottlenecks prevented an even weaker development. The sound labour market acted as a tailwind for the economy. 

German economic output is likely to have gone up slightly again in the second quarter of 2023, according to the Monthly Report. Private consumption has stabilised after previously having fallen. According to the experts, the fact that the labour market remained in good shape, wages rose sharply and price inflation did not continue to accelerate contributed to this development. Meanwhile, the decline in foreign demand was a drag on industry and the rise in funding costs dampened domestic investment. The Bundesbank is expecting the economy to recover haltingly later in the year.