According to the Bundesbank’s Monthly Report, the rise in financing costs and high inflation had a strong impact on the German housing market. Prices for residential real estate continued to rise up until the middle of 2022, but in the second half of the year fell quite significantly for the first time in a long time. By contrast, price pressures came from the massive increase in construction prices and the slow pace of the expansion of housing supply. Residential real estate in Germany continued to be overvalued on an annual average overall.

Energy prices skyrocketed and the cost of groceries went up significantly: life suddenly became more expensive in many places starting in early 2021. In the current issue of the Monthly Report, the Bundesbank’s economists examine what was behind these price increases, why inflation has since eased again and what role was played by central banks. They also reveal why the path back to price stability has posed no major disruptions to the real economy so far.

German economic output probably declined somewhat in the final quarter of 2023, according to the January Monthly Report. Weak foreign demand continued to put a strain on industry and higher financing costs were still dampening investment. Uncertainty about the future direction of fiscal and climate policy is also likely to have weighed on economic activity, Bundesbank economists report. Moreover, consumers remained cautious and are unlikely to have increased their consumption by much.

Following the decline in the previous quarter, households’ financial assets rose by €250 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023, amounting to €7,716 billion at the end of the year. 

Prof. Dr. Axel A. Weber, President of the Deutsche Bundesbank, Homer Jones Memorial Lecture hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

According to the most recent issue of the Bundesbank’s Monthly Report, German credit institutions recorded a strong improvement in performance in 2021 compared with the year before. Profit for the financial year before tax was up €12.8 billion, hitting almost double the previous year’s figure at €27.1 billion – a development which the report primarily attributes to the fact that banks significantly scaled back their risk provisioning compared with 2020 and also released some of the risk provisions that they had formed that year. However, the current year could see the profitability of German banks dampened, in particular, by the repercussions of the Russian war of aggression on Ukraine. The report explains that this might increasingly impair economic growth, which would increase the likelihood of credit losses.