Transition risk is the risk arising from the economy’s shift towards net-zero carbon emissions. Applying a novel methodology, we find that large unanticipated increases to transition risk are predominantly related to political events and can have notable macroeconomic consequences. Interestingly, in the short run these shocks do not uniformly generate inflationary pressure, challenging the prevalent notion of “greenflation.” Finally, our results highlight an important role for country-specificities, suggesting, for instance, that there may also be economic benefits attached to the transition. Overall, while international policy coordination is essential, these findings underscore the importance of tailoring policy interventions to each nation's unique economic context.

Dr. Jens Weidmann, Präsident der Deutschen Bundesbank

Karin Dohm (Deutsche Bank AG), Dr. Eva Wimmer (BMF), Erik Tim Müller (Eurex Clearing AG), Dr. Christian Ricken (Landesbank Baden-Württemberg), Stefan Wintels (Citigroup Global Markets Europe AG)

Prof. Dr. Joachim Wuermeling, Vorstandsmitglied der Deutschen Bundesbank