German banks applied tighter credit standards for loans at the beginning of 2023, as is shown by the results of the Bank Lending Survey (BLS) conducted by the Bundesbank. Institutions cited not only the higher cost of funds but also, in particular, the persistently high credit risk in all segments due to the deterioration in the economic situation as well as major uncertainty caused by the Ukraine war and by the high inflation as the main reasons for this.

Around 44,100 counterfeit euro banknotes with a nominal value of just under €2.7 million were withdrawn from circulation in Germany in 2022. There was a 5.2% increase in the number of counterfeits compared with the previous year.

In Germany, who reaches for their smartphone when paying? A new study by the Bundesbank shows that it is mainly younger people who do so, as well as those who shop and bank online and are open to technological trends. “Demographic developments thus make it likely that the use of mobile payment methods will increase in the future”, the Bundesbank’s economists write in the current issue of the Monthly Report. As things stand today, however, mobile payments are still lagging far behind cash and debit or credit cards.

In the final quarter of 2022, real gross domestic product is likely to have more or less stagnated, and thus exceeded previous expectations,” the Monthly Report states. Although high inflation and uncertainty surrounding the war in Ukraine weighed on the economy, the situation in the energy markets eased markedly compared with the third quarter. This, coupled with the government covering advance payments for gas bills, led to a distinct weakening in consumer price dynamics in December. However, prices for non-energy components such as food and industrial goods continued to increase sharply, according to the report.

The German economy grew last year despite inflation, the war in Ukraine and persistent supply problems. Price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 1.9%, according to initial calculations reported by the Federal Statistical Office. In calendar-adjusted terms, it found that economic growth amounted to 2.0%. “In 2022, the overall economic situation in Germany was affected by the consequences of the war in Ukraine and the extremely high energy price increases,” said Dr Ruth Brand, President of the Federal Statistical Office since 1 January 2023, at a press conference.

Croatia is introducing euro cash on 1 January 2023, making it the 20th Member State of the euro area. Croatian kuna banknotes can be exchanged for euro free of charge at all Bundesbank branches between 1 January and 28 February 2023. Croatia’s accession to the euro area will change the composition of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the ECB’s capital, as well as the capital key used to calculate it.

Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel anticipates continued high levels of inflation next year and does not see them declining markedly until 2024. “We expect the average annual inflation rate in Germany to be around 7% in 2023,” Mr Nagel explained in an interview with the “Stern” magazine, adding that it would then be significantly lower in 2024. “Nevertheless, the road immediately ahead remains rocky. That is why we are resolutely maintaining our monetary policy stance.”

How is Germany’s international price competitiveness faring in light of high energy costs? The Bundesbank’s experts explore this question in the latest edition of the Monthly Report. To this end, they examined the impact of the higher energy costs, on the one hand, and the euro's depreciation against the US dollar, on the other. Their result was that, at least from a macroeconomic perspective, the depreciation of the currency is probably still offsetting high energy prices.

Despite the energy crisis, the Deutsche Bundesbank does not expect the German economy to experience a severe downturn in the winter. “While economic output is likely to contract initially, we expect that the economy will gradually recover from the second half of 2023 onwards,” said Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel upon the release of his staff’s latest projections. However, the report states that inflation is high and only likely to decline gradually. “According to our projection, the rate of inflation in Germany is likely to fall to 2.8% by 2025,” Mr Nagel explained.

In a joint interview, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel and François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Banque de France, discussed “Germany, France and inflation – ways out of the crisis”. Their discussion centred on the question of when the current monetary policy stance will bear fruit and the medium-term inflation target of 2% will be achieved again. “I am firmly convinced that we will see significantly lower inflation rates from 2024 onwards. We will reach 2% with the monetary policy measures we have initiated this year,” Mr Nagel said.