Uncertainty and Forecasting in Macroeconomics

Information about the future development of macroeconomic variables, such as inflation and economic activity, is of paramount importance for a large variety of decisions to do with asset allocation, the conduct of monetary policy, wage negotiations, production planning etc. Macroeconomic forecasts have been difficult in the past and the crisis may present new challenges. Furthermore, information required by decision-makers is not restricted to expected values only, but extends to the uncertainty surrounding these expectations.