July results of the Bank Lending Survey in Germany Demand continued to rise in all loan categories
- The German banks responding to the Bank Lending Survey (BLS) tightened their credit standards for loans to enterprises and loans to households in the second quarter of 2025. Increased credit risk and lower risk tolerance were the rationale behind the tightening.
- The surveyed banks barely changed their credit terms and conditions for loans to enterprises and loans to households for house purchase. For consumer credit and other lending to households, they tightened credit terms and conditions on balance.
- Loan demand continued to rise in all loan categories; the demand for loans to enterprises increased more strongly than in previous quarters.
- The non-performing loans (NPL) ratio and other indicators of credit quality had a tightening impact on banks’ credit standards, terms and conditions in all loan categories under review.
- Owing to climate-related risks and measures to cope with climate change, the past twelve months saw banks tighten their credit standards for “brown” firms and firms in transition. In the case of loans to households for house purchase, credit standards for loans for buildings with poor energy performance also became more restrictive.
The BLS covers three loan categories: loans to enterprises, loans to households for house purchase, and consumer credit and other lending to households. On balance, the surveyed banks tightened their credit standards (i.e. their internal guidelines or loan approval criteria) for loans to enterprises and loans to households. The net share of banks that tightened their standards stood at + 3 % for loans to enterprises (compared with + 3 % in the previous quarter). Credit standards for loans to enterprises were tightened only for small and medium-sized enterprises. The banks tightened credit standards for loans to households for house purchase by + 11 % in net terms (compared with − 7 % in the previous quarter) and for consumer credit and other lending to households by + 11 % in net terms (compared with 0 % in the previous quarter). Banks tightened their credit standards for all reported loan categories to a lesser extent than they had planned in the previous quarter.
The rationale given by the banks for the marginal tightening of credit standards for loans to enterprises was elevated credit risk owing to the gloomier economic situation and the economic outlook. The banks cited a decrease in their risk tolerance as the main reason for tightening their credit standards for loans to households. In addition, a decline in households’ creditworthiness had a restrictive impact on consumer credit and other lending. For the third quarter of 2025, banks are planning to ease their credit standards for loans to enterprises. As regards loans to households, they expect to tighten credit standards again if borrowers’ credit quality continues to deteriorate.
On aggregate, banks made hardly any changes to their credit terms and conditions (i.e. the terms and conditions actually approved as laid down in the loan contract) for loans to enterprises and loans to households for house purchase. For consumer credit and other lending to households, they tightened credit terms and conditions on balance. The banks justified these adjustments primarily on the grounds of their reduced risk tolerance and an increase in credit risk.
The surveyed banks reported that demand for bank loans in Germany had risen on balance in all loan categories in the second quarter of 2025. The increase in demand exceeded the banks’ expectations from the previous quarter in all surveyed business areas. Demand for loans to enterprises rose more strongly than in previous quarters. The banks cited an increase in financing needs for fixed investment as well as for inventories and working capital as the reason. In both cases, this was the first time in a year that banks reported moderate growth in funding needs again. In addition, the general level of interest rates also contributed to the increase in demand. According to the surveyed banks, the renewed significant rise in demand for loans to households for house purchase was due mainly to households’ positive view of the outlook on the housing market and the lower level of interest rates. Banks put the rise in households’ demand for consumer credit and other lending down to improved consumer confidence and an increase in purchases of durable consumer goods. The loan rejection rate for loans to enterprises went up again, primarily for loan requests and applications from small and medium-sized enterprises. The rejection rate also increased for consumer credit and other lending to households, but remained unchanged for loans for house purchase. For the third quarter of 2025, banks are expecting to see demand increase further across all three loan categories. For loans to enterprises, banks are expecting positive impetus from domestic economic policy but at the same time a dampening impact from the global political situation.
The July survey round contained ad hoc questions on participating banks’ financing conditions and about the impact of NPLs and other indicators of credit quality on the institutions’ lending policies. It also contained a question on their credit standards, terms and conditions, and on demand for loans across the main economic sectors. In addition, for the third time, BLS banks were surveyed on the impact of climate change and climate-related measures on bank lending. They were asked to report on the impact for “green” firms (firms that do not contribute or contribute little to climate change), firms in transition (firms that contribute to climate change, which are making relevant progress in the transition), and “brown” firms (firms that contribute strongly to climate change, which have not yet started or have so far made only little progress in the transition). This question was expanded for the first time to include a question on the impact of climate change and climate-related measures in connection with loans to households for house purchase. Another ad hoc question assessed the impact of excess liquidity on bank lending.
Given the conditions in financial markets, German banks reported that their funding situation had improved slightly compared with the previous quarter.
In the second quarter of 2025, the NPL ratio (the stock of gross NPLs on the bank’s balance sheet as a percentage of the gross carrying amount of loans) and other indicators of credit quality, owing to their size, had a restrictive impact on credit standards, terms and conditions for loans to enterprises and loans to households. For the third quarter of 2025, the banks are expecting this credit quality-driven restrictive effect to continue. Credit standards for loans to enterprises were tightened most sharply over the past six months in the (commercial) real estate and manufacturing sectors. However, credit standards were also tightened for all other sectors surveyed, with the exception of services. For the next six months, banks are not expecting to make any noteworthy adjustments to credit standards in any of the economic sectors, the first time they have reported this for quite some time.
Climate-related risks and measures to cope with climate change have had a restrictive impact on credit standards for loans to enterprises over the past twelve months. The more the enterprises contributed to climate change, the greater that impact was. The effects of climate change had a restrictive impact on credit terms and conditions, especially those for loans to “brown” firms. The effect was expansionary, on the other hand, for loans to “green” firms. Over the next twelve months, banks expect climate change to ease their credit standards, terms and conditions for “green” firms. They are expecting climate change to have a further restrictive impact on their credit standards, terms and conditions for loans to other enterprises. At the same time, the effects of climate change, taken in isolation, stimulated loan demand from “green” firms and firms in transition. By contrast, climate change and climate policy had no impact on loan demand from “brown” firms. For the next twelve months, banks are expecting to see climate change stimulate demand for loans irrespective of firms’ classification.
In the case of loans to households for house purchase, credit standards for loans for buildings with poor energy performance were tightened. By contrast, for loans for buildings with high or reasonably good energy performance, climate-related risks and measures to cope with climate change had no notable impact on credit standards. Over the next twelve months, banks expect this adjustment of credit standards, which is dependent on buildings’ energy performance, to continue. At the same time, climate-related factors, especially investment in the energy performance of buildings, in isolation, stimulated demand for loans for buildings with high or reasonably good energy performance. By contrast, demand for loans for buildings with poor energy performance remained unaffected by climate-related factors. Over the next twelve months, banks expect rising demand for loans for buildings with high energy performance and declining loan demand for buildings with poor energy performance.
The banks do not see developments in excess liquidity held with the Eurosystem as having had any impact on bank lending over the past six months. By their account, that is unlikely to change in the next six months.
The Bank Lending Survey, which is conducted four times a year, took place between 13 June and 1 July 2025. In Germany, 33 banks took part in the survey, with a response rate of 100 %.
