In the first half of 2025, the Bundesbank withdrew approximately 36,600 counterfeit euro banknotes with a nominal value of just under €2.1 million from circulation in Germany. The number of counterfeits rose by 8 % compared with the second half of 2024. 

Real gross domestic product (GDP) was probably more or less stagnant in the second quarter, according to the Bundesbank’s latest Monthly Report. One reason for this was frontloading effects relating to exports and industrial production in anticipation of higher US tariffs in the first quarter of 2025. In addition, activity in the services sector probably expanded only slightly, partly because private consumption is likely to have provided less impetus. The construction sector is even expected to make a significantly negative contribution to growth. Inflation was down slightly to 2.0 % in June.

In light of the ongoing tariff dispute, uncertainty in the financial markets and within firms is high, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel has said in a joint press statement with Federal Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil. The pair were speaking whilst attending the meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors in KwaZulu-Natal. Mr Nagel stressed the vital importance of reaching an agreement in the conflict over tariffs, but he insisted that the EU should not acquiesce to the United States at all costs. He also called on the United States not to treat the situation like a game: “At the end of the day, when there’s the potential for economic policies that could cause major damage on a global scale, it’s everybody’s prosperity that’s at stake.”

German export market shares have been contracting since 2017, and especially since 2021. According to the latest Monthly Report, this is largely due to a deterioration in the competitiveness of the German economy. More than three-quarters of the losses in market shares between 2021 and 2023 were the result of supply-side constraints. In this issue, the authors look at what is behind the decline in German export market shares and derive possible structural reforms.