Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel has warned of persistently high inflation. “Even before the war against Ukraine, the inflation rate was very high. [...] Given the surge in energy prices on account of the war, consumer price inflation is likely to pick up again substantially, particularly in the near term,” Mr Nagel said in a speech delivered at a change of office ceremony in Hanover. As members of the ECB Governing Council, he remarked, we must now ensure that the strong inflation does not become entrenched and does not lead to excessively high inflation in the medium term.

BaFin and Deutsche Bundesbank are putting their joint consultation paper “Machine Learning in Risk Models – Characteristics and Supervisory Priorities” out for consultation. It deals with the concrete use of machine learning (ML) in risk models of Pillars I and II of the regulatory framework for banks and insurers.

“The impact of Russia’s attack on Ukraine is likely to place a noticeable strain on economic activity in Germany from March,” the Bundesbank writes in its Monthly Report. Energy commodity prices have surged which will probably put a damper on household consumption and the production of energy-intensive industries. Together with the looming disruptions to foreign trade and supply chains and the heightened uncertainty, the consequences of the war are likely to slow the economic recovery originally expected by a significant degree.