Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel has once again advocated making a timely start on normalising policy rates in the euro area. The risk of acting too late is increasing notably, he said at a conference in Eltville am Rhein. “As inflation in the euro area continues to run high, we need to act,” Mr Nagel urged. “And if both the incoming data and our new projection confirm this view in June, I will advocate a first step [towards] normalising ECB (European Central Bank) interest rates in July.”

Households’ financial assets grew by €161 billion to €7,618 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021. Taking all transactions and valuation effects into account, growth was thus significantly higher than in the (weak) third quarter.

Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann does not believe that the uncertainty generated by trade disputes has thus far had any lasting impact on the global economy. Speaking on the sidelines of the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund in Bali, he said that the slight slowdown in growth, especially that observed in European countries, is probably due to the normalisation of expansion rather than a consequence of the trade conflict.

German economic output is likely to have gone up slightly again in the second quarter of 2023, according to the Monthly Report. Private consumption has stabilised after previously having fallen. According to the experts, the fact that the labour market remained in good shape, wages rose sharply and price inflation did not continue to accelerate contributed to this development. Meanwhile, the decline in foreign demand was a drag on industry and the rise in funding costs dampened domestic investment. The Bundesbank is expecting the economy to recover haltingly later in the year.

“The impact of Russia’s attack on Ukraine is likely to place a noticeable strain on economic activity in Germany from March,” the Bundesbank writes in its Monthly Report. Energy commodity prices have surged which will probably put a damper on household consumption and the production of energy-intensive industries. Together with the looming disruptions to foreign trade and supply chains and the heightened uncertainty, the consequences of the war are likely to slow the economic recovery originally expected by a significant degree.