The global financial crisis was a lesson that it is not enough to merely monitor the stability of individual banks – the stability of the banking sector as a whole is also a crucial factor, which is precisely what the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB), a key instrument under the Basel III regime, is there to help safeguard. However, recent research indicates that adhering too strictly to the reference indicator envisaged under the Basel III framework might lead to a situation in which supervisors activate the CCyB either too late or not at all ahead of a future financial crisis.

Whenever financial markets react to ECB Governing Council meetings, the explanation seems obvious: the Governing Council surprised markets, for instance, by changing its policy rate or by hinting at a future rate change. Any market reaction would thus stem from unexpected announcements about monetary policy. The response of different asset prices such as bond yields and stock prices, however, often contradicts this simple explanation. A new study indicates that these seemingly puzzling reactions are driven by information about the economic outlook that the ECB reveals via its announcements.