Despite the energy crisis, the Deutsche Bundesbank does not expect the German economy to experience a severe downturn in the winter. “While economic output is likely to contract initially, we expect that the economy will gradually recover from the second half of 2023 onwards,” said Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel upon the release of his staff’s latest projections. However, the report states that inflation is high and only likely to decline gradually. “According to our projection, the rate of inflation in Germany is likely to fall to 2.8% by 2025,” Mr Nagel explained.

Germany’s current account recorded a surplus of €11.0 billion in January 2022, down €13.6 billion on the previous month’s level. The surplus in the goods account declined considerably, with the surplus in invisible current transactions, which comprise services as well as primary and secondary income, contracting even more strongly.