A new weekly activity index (WAI) published by the Bundesbank is designed to measure real economic activity in Germany in a timely manner. Measured by the WAI, economic activity between 16 March and 14 June 2020 was 7.4% below the activity recorded between 16 December 2019 and 15 March 2020.

Times of strong growth and low interest rates have seen vulnerabilities build up in the German financial system. In addition, the probability of an economic downturn has increased. “Now is the time to build up sufficient capital and strengthen the financial system’s defences,” said Bundesbank Vice-President Claudia Buch at the press conference on the publication of the new Financial Stability Review.

Germany’s current account recorded a surplus of €22.5 billion in October 2020, down €2.7 billion from the previous month’s level.

“The German economy is overcoming the coronavirus crisis and is poised for the start of a strong upswing,” writes the Bundesbank in its semi-annual projection. The Bundesbank’s economists expect that gross domestic product will reattain its pre-crisis level as early as this summer. It is likely that the rate of inflation will rise strongly to 2.6% in 2021.

“Economic output in Germany is likely to have risen sharply in the third quarter of 2020,” the Bundesbank writes in its latest Monthly Report. As measured by quarterly gross domestic product, the German economy may have already recouped slightly more than half of the dramatic losses sustained in the first half of the year. According to the experts, there will probably be only a relatively small rise in economic output in the current quarter.

Germany’s current account recorded a surplus of €16.5 billion in August 2020, down €4.6 billion from the previous month’s level.

A new weekly activity index (WAI) for the German economy has been developed at the Bundesbank to assess the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the economy from a near-time perspective. The Bundesbank is using this new indicator as an input in its short-term economic analysis.