Following significant GDP growth in the previous quarter, the German economy is likely to stagnate in the first quarter of 2026 in seasonally adjusted terms, according to the March issue of the Bundesbank’s Monthly Report. Industry’s weak competitive position, continued low capacity utilisation and a lag in the impact of government stimuli are dampening developments. The Middle East conflict is a source of additional burdens, especially as a result of rising energy prices, and these factors are keeping the inflation outlook particularly uncertain at present.

Digitalisation, in particular, can increase productivity growth: Germany has work to do in this area, Executive Board member Fritzi Köhler-Geib said at a Bundesbank panel discussion. There, she spoke with Kristina Sinemus, Hesse’s Minister for Digitalisation and Innovation, and Claudia Nemat in her capacity as a tech entrepreneur, about boosting economic growth.

Landmark session of the Bundesbank’s Executive Board at the Regional Office in Hesse: more than 23 years on from its constituent meeting, the Executive Board gathers for the thousandth time.

The digital euro is intended to complement cash and strengthen Europe’s strategic autonomy in payments, the Bundesbank writes in its latest Monthly Report. Both online and offline payments would be possible with the digital euro. It would introduce the benefits of cash to the digital world without replacing cash.

The monetary policy turnaround shaped the Bundesbank’s balance sheet last year. The profit and loss account for 2022 reported a distributable profit of zero. This result was achieved by tapping €1 billion worth of risk provisions. As in the previous years, no profit was transferred to the Federal budget. “The Bundesbank sustained exceptional financial burdens in 2022,” Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said at the joint press conference with Executive Board member Joachim Wuermeling.

The worsening energy crisis, a sharp economic slump and abruptly rising market interest rates could put the financial system in Germany under considerable pressure. “To ensure that potential stress is not amplified via the financial system, financial institutions must be sufficiently resilient on their own,” said Claudia Buch, Vice-President of the Deutsche Bundesbank, at the presentation of the 2022 Financial Stability Review. “Financial institutions should assess the impact of adverse scenarios. Given the high uncertainty, they should engage in prudent risk provisioning and exercise caution when distributing profits,” emphasised Bundesbank Executive Board member Joachim Wuermeling.

The Governing Council today decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. It is determined to ensure that inflation stabilises at the 2 % target in the medium term. The war in the Middle East has made the outlook significantly more uncertain, creating upside risks for inflation and downside risks for economic growth. 

At a press conference today, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel and First Deputy Governor Sabine Mauderer presented the Bundesbank’s Annual Report for 2025. The loss for the year declined further in 2025, as expected. In view of a significant improvement in profitability, the Bundesbank reported a loss for the year of €8.6 billion, Mr Nagel explained.

January 2026 saw the EU conclude two major trade agreements – with the Mercosur countries and with India – culminating many years of negotiations. These agreements largely eliminate trade barriers and could, over the long run, help diversify the EU’s trade relations. Ratification of the two deals is still pending, however. Writing in the latest Monthly Report, Bundesbank experts illuminate the main features of the trade agreements and explore their potential economic impact.

German economic output rose significantly in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to the Monthly Report. Growth towards the end of the year was primarily driven by private and government consumption. Households probably also benefited from strong wage growth. Industry grew its production and construction output rose significantly. According to the experts, there is no sign of any short-term trend reversal for the better in the labour market. The inflation rate stood at around 2 % at the turn of the year.