Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices

Inflation update

In January 2026, the inflation rate in Germany – measured as the percentage change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) compared to the same month of the previous year – is estimated by official figures to rise to 2.1 %, from 2.0 % in December 2025. The price increases for industrial goods excluding energy and for food rose noticeably again compared to December. Energy prices fell even more sharply year-on-year than in December. Service sector inflation also continued to decline. Core inflation (HICP excluding energy and food) fell slightly to 2.4 %.

With the reporting month of January, several methodological changes will come into force in the HICP, which are already included in the Flash estimate. The index will be compiled according to the new European Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose version 2, aligned with the UN COICOP 2018 classification. Games of chance will be included in the HICP as part of Recreation services under the division of Recreation, sport and culture. The index reference period will also be updated to 2025=100.

The next update will be on 25 February 2026 (final HICP figures for January 2026).

Item	Year-on-year percentage change			Average¹ (%)	Weighting (%)
Item	Jan 26	Dec 25	Nov 25	1999 – 2025	2025
HICP (Germany)	+ 2.1	+ 2.0	+ 2,5	+ 2.0	100.0
Energy	− 1.9	− 1.3	− 0.1	+ 4.0	9.0
HICP excluding energy	+ 2.5	+ 2.4	+ 2.8	+ 1.7	91.0
Food²	+ 2.9	+ 1.8	+ 2.1	+ 2.7	16.6
HICP excluding energy and food	+ 2.4	+ 2.5	+ 3.0	+ 1.5	74.5
Industrial goods³	+ 0.6	+ 0.2	+ 0.9	+ 1.0	28.2
Services	+ 3.5	+ 3.9	+ 4.3	+ 1.8	46.3
CPI (Germany)	+ 2.1	+ 1.8	+ 2.3	+ 1.9
Sources: Federal Statistical Office, Eurostat, Bundesbank calculation. 1 Long-term geometric average. 2 Including alcohol and tobacco. 3 Excluding energy.

Background

The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is the key measure of price stability in the euro area. It measures the average change in prices of all goods and services purchased by households for consumption purposes. The year-on-year percentage change in the HICP serves as the basis for assessing price stability in the euro area. Annual HICP year-on-year percentage change is here also referred to as the inflation rate. The euro area HICP is derived from the HICPs of the euro area countries.

As a general rule, the HICP is calculated on a monthly basis for euro area countries using data from the respective national consumer price indices (CPIs) and relying on harmonised concepts and methods. The Federal Statistical Office calculates the HICP data for Germany.

In Germany, the main difference between the HICP and the national CPI is that the former, in accordance with the European methodological guidelines, does not include owner-occupied housing costs. As a result, services have a smaller weight in the HICP than in the CPI. Accordingly, divergent price trends for goods and services may have disparate effects on the HICP and the CPI.

The data are usually taken from Eurostat. However, if the Federal Statistical Office provides a more up-to-date estimate, this is used as the most recent data point. Eurostat’s annual HICP rates may differ from those of the Federal Statistical Office due to different rounding procedures for index levels.