The Weekly Activity Index (WAI) is an experimental measure designed to provide a timely assessment of real economic activity in Germany. In addition to incorporating monthly data on industrial production and quarterly gross domestic product, the WAI draws primarily on daily and weekly indicators that are available at short notice and collectively offer a broad representation of aggregate economic activity. By doing so, the WAI can detect shifts in economic activity more promptly than many conventional official statistics, which are typically released on a monthly or quarterly basis and with a longer reporting lag.

The WAI was developed in the early phase of the coronavirus pandemic, when timely information on the sharp fluctuations in economic activity was urgently needed. During the pandemic, it provided valuable insights for real‑time economic monitoring. Since then, it has complemented the set of business cycle indicators used by the Bundesbank. However, the daily and weekly indicators underlying the WAI have continued to display considerable volatility even in the years following the pandemic. ompared with other established business cycle indicators for Germany, the WAI is relatively prone to cyclical false signals and subsequent revisions. The results should therefore be interpreted with appropriate caution.

As of 25 August 2025, the regular commentary on the WAI and the publication of an implied GDP growth rate have been discontinued at this location until further notice. 

The WAI will, however, continue to be calculated each week based on the information available from the preceding week, and will be made available in the Bundesbank’s data catalogue at 16:00 CET on the first business day of each week. 

Note

The WAI is an experimental indicator and has been adjusted several times (see Methodology). It does not constitute an official forecast of the Deutsche Bundesbank or the Eurosystem.

Citation

Please cite this report as follows:
Eraslan, S. and T. Götz (2020), An unconventional weekly economic activity index for Germany, Deutsche Bundesbank Technical Paper, 02/2020. Data retrieved from www.bundesbank.de/wai.