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The macroeconomic environment is being shaped by the interest rate reversal and heightened uncertainty. So far, the German financial system has coped well with the rise in interest rates over the last year, but the effects of this rise have not yet fully materialised. Structural change in the economy is also likely to further increase credit risk.

The current good earnings situation is enabling institutions to further strengthen their capital base and thus their resilience to adverse developments,said Claudia Buch, Vice-President of the Deutsche Bundesbank, at the presentation of the 2023 Financial Stability Review. Even in adverse scenarios, financial institutions should have sufficient levels of capital and liquidity to be able to absorb shocks on their own. Resilience, noted Vice-President Buch, would also require investment in IT infrastructure in order to be equipped to deal with cyber risks.