Orders received is a leading indicator for cyclical developments. The figures are compiled monthly by the Federal Statistical Office and published both as a value index and as a volume index for the manufacturing and construction sectors respectively. The number of permits granted for structural engineering work also indicates the level of economic movement to be expected in that sector.

According to the current issue of the Bundesbank’s Monthly Report, German economic output fell surprisingly significantly in the fourth quarter of 2024. The main reasons for this were declining exports and weak industrial output, especially in the automotive sector, while private and government consumption expenditure rose. The labour market outlook also suggests a continued cooldown.

The German economy remained listless at the end of 2024. According to the Bundesbank’s latest Monthly Report, industry has been particularly weak. It is also unlikely that the German economy will manage to escape the period of stagnation in the first quarter of 2025. The inflation rate is still elevated but is likely to decline soon.

Contrary to expectations, German economic output fell slightly in the second quarter of 2024, the Bundesbank writes in its latest Monthly Report. Real gross domestic product (GDP) recorded a quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis. Despite stabilising demand, industrial output resumed its downward trend in the second quarter. In the first quarter, it had experienced a brief recovery.

Real gross domestic product is likely to have increased again slightly in the first quarter of 2024, according to the April Monthly Report. The somewhat higher level of industrial output and a rise in goods exports are supporting the German economy. Overall, they conclude, there is still no sign of a sustained improvement for the German economy.

Real gross domestic product will probably decline again slightly in the first quarter of 2024, according to the March Monthly Report. The economy continues to experience headwinds from various directions. Domestic and foreign demand for German industrial products went down further. In addition, higher financing costs dampened domestic demand. Moreover, the available survey indicators still provide little evidence of an economic recovery for the coming quarter. 

German economic output contracted in the final quarter of 2023, according to the February Monthly Report. Weak demand from abroad was still putting a strain on industry, while higher financing costs continued to dampen investment. Bundesbank economists believe that uncertainty about transformation and climate policy is also likely to have weighed on economic activity. Some headwinds will probably persist into the first quarter of 2024 as well. Economic output could therefore decline again somewhat. 

German economic output is likely to contract somewhat in the third quarter of 2023, the Bundesbank writes in its Monthly Report. It is unlikely that private consumption will offer any discernible positive impetus. Households are still reluctant to spend despite the slight easing in price inflation, strong wage growth and favourable labour market. In addition, weak industry is weighing on economic output. 

Real gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to have contracted somewhat in the third quarter of 2023, according to the latest Monthly Report. Weak foreign demand and higher financing costs weighed on the German economy. Tailwinds came from the still robust labour market and steep wage increases amidst subsiding inflation, the economists report.

The German economy is still experiencing a period of weakness. According to the Federal Statistical Office’s flash estimate, in the second quarter of 2023, seasonally adjusted real gross domestic product (GDP) stagnated at the level recorded in the previous quarter. The current issue of the Bundesbank’s Monthly Report reports that weak foreign demand and higher financing costs are weighing on the economy. The large backlog of orders in industry and construction and abating supply bottlenecks prevented an even weaker development. The sound labour market acted as a tailwind for the economy. 

In the final quarter of 2022, real gross domestic product is likely to have more or less stagnated, and thus exceeded previous expectations,” the Monthly Report states. Although high inflation and uncertainty surrounding the war in Ukraine weighed on the economy, the situation in the energy markets eased markedly compared with the third quarter. This, coupled with the government covering advance payments for gas bills, led to a distinct weakening in consumer price dynamics in December. However, prices for non-energy components such as food and industrial goods continued to increase sharply, according to the report.

The Bundesbank’s experts see mounting signs of the German economy sliding into a recession. According to the current issue of the Bundesbank’s Monthly Report, economic output is likely to decline somewhat in the current quarter and to shrink significantly in the final quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023. The economists put this largely down to the extremely tight energy supply situation.

“The recovery of the German economy, which began in spring, continued at a faster pace in the third quarter of 2021,” the Bundesbank writes in its Monthly Report. Particularly strong growth was reported for private consumption and services. Supply-side constraints persisted in industry, however, so that output continued to lag considerably behind strong demand.

According to the current issue of the Monthly Report, there is likely to be a steep fall in German economic output in the first quarter of 2021. In particular, activity in services sectors with high frequencies of interpersonal contact will probably have declined again sharply. By contrast, industry is profiting from stronger foreign demand and is likely to have bolstered economic activity in the current quarter.

Economic output in Germany declined in the first quarter of this year, according to the latest edition of the Bundesbank’s Monthly Report. Many services sectors suffered larger losses than in the previous quarter due to containment measures being tightened and prolonged. In addition, the upturn in industrial output was not sustained in the first two months.

Economic output in Germany could have contracted again slightly in the third quarter of 2019 compared with the second quarter. According to the Bundesbank’s latest Monthly Report, this is due to continued weakness in export-based industry. By contrast, the domestic economy continued to provide impetus.

The German economy grew moderately in the first quarter of 2019. However, in the Bundesbank’s assessment, the still positive development was largely attributable to one-off effects. The Bundesbank's economists write that the already booming construction sector profited further from the favourable weather in February, for example.

In the Bundesbank’s estimation, the German economy recorded only modest growth in the final quarter of 2018. Disappointing industrial developments, in particular, meant that the pace of growth probably did not match that of the first half of the year, the Bank's economists write in the current issue of the Monthly Report.

Germany’s strong and broadly based economic upswing continued into the fourth quarter of 2017. As the Bundesbank’s January Monthly Report explains, industrial orders and labour market conditions are in excellent shape, as are business and consumer sentiment.

The Bundesbank is expecting economic growth in Germany to remain quite robust. According to the current issue of the Monthly Report, the underlying pace of economic activity is still high. The Bundesbank’s economists believe that private consumption will be the main driver of growth.

In its latest Monthly Report, the Bundesbank notes that the German economy probably continued its robust upswing into the first quarter of this year on the back of the exceptionally strong orders situation in industry in the second half of 2017.

The economic situation in Germany is charting a positive course. According to the current issue of the Monthly Report, industrial enterprises, in particular, have been benefiting from lively demand from within Germany and elsewhere.

After the year got off to a moderate start, the German economy rebounded quite strongly in the second quarter of 2018. The Bundesbank believes that the German economy is likely to remain on a sound growth path in the current quarter. However, as is explained further in the August issue of the Monthly Report, the pace of growth could tail off slightly.

Bundesbank says the Germany economy remains on a strong growth path. In its October Monthly Report the Bundesbank concludes that Germany’s upswing continued in the third quarter, though it may have temporarily lost some steam.

Here you will find more information about the structure and scope of the database.

Professor Dr. Axel A. Weber, Präsident der Deutschen Bundesbank, Vortrag auf der Sitzung des Wirtschaftsbeirats der BayernLB