Following significant GDP growth in the previous quarter, the German economy is likely to stagnate in the first quarter of 2026 in seasonally adjusted terms, according to the March issue of the Bundesbank’s Monthly Report. Industry’s weak competitive position, continued low capacity utilisation and a lag in the impact of government stimuli are dampening developments. The Middle East conflict is a source of additional burdens, especially as a result of rising energy prices, and these factors are keeping the inflation outlook particularly uncertain at present.

Notes on methodology and links

Information on JDemetra+, a software product developed for the seasonal adjustment of time series