Orders received is a leading indicator for cyclical developments. The figures are compiled monthly by the Federal Statistical Office and published both as a value index and as a volume index for the manufacturing and construction sectors respectively. The number of permits granted for structural engineering work also indicates the level of economic movement to be expected in that sector.

According to the current issue of the Bundesbank’s Monthly Report, German economic output fell surprisingly significantly in the fourth quarter of 2024. The main reasons for this were declining exports and weak industrial output, especially in the automotive sector, while private and government consumption expenditure rose. The labour market outlook also suggests a continued cooldown.

The German economy remained listless at the end of 2024. According to the Bundesbank’s latest Monthly Report, industry has been particularly weak. It is also unlikely that the German economy will manage to escape the period of stagnation in the first quarter of 2025. The inflation rate is still elevated but is likely to decline soon.

Contrary to expectations, German economic output fell slightly in the second quarter of 2024, the Bundesbank writes in its latest Monthly Report. Real gross domestic product (GDP) recorded a quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis. Despite stabilising demand, industrial output resumed its downward trend in the second quarter. In the first quarter, it had experienced a brief recovery.

Real gross domestic product is likely to have increased again slightly in the first quarter of 2024, according to the April Monthly Report. The somewhat higher level of industrial output and a rise in goods exports are supporting the German economy. Overall, they conclude, there is still no sign of a sustained improvement for the German economy.

Real gross domestic product will probably decline again slightly in the first quarter of 2024, according to the March Monthly Report. The economy continues to experience headwinds from various directions. Domestic and foreign demand for German industrial products went down further. In addition, higher financing costs dampened domestic demand. Moreover, the available survey indicators still provide little evidence of an economic recovery for the coming quarter. 

German economic output contracted in the final quarter of 2023, according to the February Monthly Report. Weak demand from abroad was still putting a strain on industry, while higher financing costs continued to dampen investment. Bundesbank economists believe that uncertainty about transformation and climate policy is also likely to have weighed on economic activity. Some headwinds will probably persist into the first quarter of 2024 as well. Economic output could therefore decline again somewhat. 

German economic output is likely to contract somewhat in the third quarter of 2023, the Bundesbank writes in its Monthly Report. It is unlikely that private consumption will offer any discernible positive impetus. Households are still reluctant to spend despite the slight easing in price inflation, strong wage growth and favourable labour market. In addition, weak industry is weighing on economic output. 

Real gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to have contracted somewhat in the third quarter of 2023, according to the latest Monthly Report. Weak foreign demand and higher financing costs weighed on the German economy. Tailwinds came from the still robust labour market and steep wage increases amidst subsiding inflation, the economists report.

The German economy is still experiencing a period of weakness. According to the Federal Statistical Office’s flash estimate, in the second quarter of 2023, seasonally adjusted real gross domestic product (GDP) stagnated at the level recorded in the previous quarter. The current issue of the Bundesbank’s Monthly Report reports that weak foreign demand and higher financing costs are weighing on the economy. The large backlog of orders in industry and construction and abating supply bottlenecks prevented an even weaker development. The sound labour market acted as a tailwind for the economy.