The current issue of the Bundesbank’s Monthly Report reports that German economic output was lower in the fourth quarter of 2022 than in the previous quarter. According to the Federal Statistical Office’s flash estimate, real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased by 0.2% on the quarter after seasonal adjustment. The Bundesbank’s experts are expecting yet another fall in economic output in the first quarter of 2023. The inflation rate is expected to continue to decline in the coming months, but underlying price pressure will remain high.

In the final quarter of 2022, real gross domestic product is likely to have more or less stagnated, and thus exceeded previous expectations,” the Monthly Report states. Although high inflation and uncertainty surrounding the war in Ukraine weighed on the economy, the situation in the energy markets eased markedly compared with the third quarter. This, coupled with the government covering advance payments for gas bills, led to a distinct weakening in consumer price dynamics in December. However, prices for non-energy components such as food and industrial goods continued to increase sharply, according to the report.

According to the Bundesbank's latest Monthly Report, the first double-digit inflation rate in 70 years and a high degree of uncertainty about energy supply and its costs are weighing significantly on the German economy. In the forthcoming final quarter of 2022 and first quarter of 2023, economic output could therefore fall considerably and Germany be on the brink of a recession. However, the extent of this decline is extremely uncertain, according to the report.

Kreditrichtlinien wurden für alle Kreditkategorien weiter verschärft. Kreditnachfrage ist sowohl bei Unternehmen als auch bei privaten Haushalten stark rückläufig. Banken sind wegen notleidender Kredite stärker besorgt und planen Verschärfung der Kreditvergabebedingungen. Klimarisiken sind zunehmend in den Kreditbedingungen berücksichtigt.

In 2022, the Bundesbank registered approximately 44,100 counterfeit euro banknotes with a nominal value of €2.7 million in German payments. The number of counterfeits was thus up by 5.2% on the year.

Die Bundesbank hat im ersten Halbjahr 2013 rund 19.500 falsche Euro-Banknoten registriert. Die Zahl der Fälschungen ist damit im Vergleich zum zweiten Halbjahr 2012 um 13,6 Prozent gesunken.

Around 44,100 counterfeit euro banknotes with a nominal value of just under €2.7 million were withdrawn from circulation in Germany in 2022. There was a 5.2% increase in the number of counterfeits compared with the previous year.

Die Bundesbank hat im 1. Halbjahr 2010 rund 33.700 falsche Euro-Banknoten registriert. Die Zahl der Fälschungen ist damit gegenüber dem 2. Halbjahr 2009 um 20 Prozent gestiegen. Der durch Falschgeld verursachte Schaden hat sich im gleichen Zeitraum von 1,6 auf 1,9 Millionen Euro erhöht.

Despite the energy crisis, the Deutsche Bundesbank does not expect the German economy to experience a severe downturn in the winter. “While economic output is likely to contract initially, we expect that the economy will gradually recover from the second half of 2023 onwards,” said Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel upon the release of his staff’s latest projections. However, the report states that inflation is high and only likely to decline gradually. “According to our projection, the rate of inflation in Germany is likely to fall to 2.8% by 2025,” Mr Nagel explained.

Die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) hat heute die Ergebnisse der in ihrem Auftrag durchgeführten Untersuchung zum Zahlungsverhalten der Bürgerinnen und Bürger und zu deren Einstellung gegenüber digitalen Zahlungen veröffentlicht. Diese Untersuchung im Rahmen des Projekts zum digitalen Euro sollte einen tieferen Einblick in die Nutzerpräferenzen gewähren.

Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel has once again advocated making a timely start on normalising policy rates in the euro area. The risk of acting too late is increasing notably, he said at a conference in Eltville am Rhein. “As inflation in the euro area continues to run high, we need to act,” Mr Nagel urged. “And if both the incoming data and our new projection confirm this view in June, I will advocate a first step [towards] normalising ECB (European Central Bank) interest rates in July.”

“The impact of Russia’s attack on Ukraine is likely to place a noticeable strain on economic activity in Germany from March,” the Bundesbank writes in its Monthly Report. Energy commodity prices have surged which will probably put a damper on household consumption and the production of energy-intensive industries. Together with the looming disruptions to foreign trade and supply chains and the heightened uncertainty, the consequences of the war are likely to slow the economic recovery originally expected by a significant degree.

In the first half of 2022, around 19,800 counterfeit euro banknotes with a nominal value of just under €1 million were withdrawn from circulation in Germany. The number of counterfeits fell by 3.9% compared with the second half of 2021. This equates to five counterfeit banknotes per 10,000 inhabitants.

In the first half of 2022, around 19,800 counterfeit euro banknotes with a nominal value of just under €1 million were withdrawn from circulation in Germany. The number of counterfeits fell by 3.9% compared with the second half of 2021.

In the final quarter of 2021, economic output in Germany is likely to have declined slightly, the Bundesbank writes in its current Monthly Report. According to the Bank’s experts, this is primarily due to the resurgence of the pandemic. While gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 2.7% on the year in 2021 as a whole, this was not nearly enough to offset the sharp decline of the previous year, the Bank’s experts say. 

Die Parallelumlaufphase von Lats und Euro endete am 14. Januar 2014. Auf Lats lautende Banknoten und Münzen werden von der Latvijas Banka ohne zeitliche Befristung umgetauscht.

There was a steep rise economic output in Germany in the third quarter of 2021, the Bundesbank writes in its Monthly Report. Gross domestic product was up by 1.8%, therefore falling 1.1% short of its pre-crisis level in the fourth quarter of 2019. The Bundesbank’s experts expect that the economic recovery will probably take a breather in the fourth quarter. The Bundesbank takes a critical view of imposing a minimum wage of €12 per hour, which is an idea considered in the coalition talks. Inflation could temporarily rise to just under 6% in November.

Bargeld ist bezogen auf die Gesamtheit aller Einkäufe, wie zum Beispiel im Einzelhandel für den täglichen Bedarf, bei Dienstleistungen oder im Internethandel, im Durchschnitt das meistgenutzte Zahlungsmittel in Deutschland. Es wird diese Rolle voraussichtlich auch in Zukunft behalten. Dies geht aus der Studie „Zahlungsverhalten in Deutschland“ hervor, die heute von der Bundesbank in Frankfurt veröffentlicht wurde.