The war in the Middle East is weighing on the German economy and will initially slow down the recovery that began in the winter half-year, the Bundesbank’s latest Forecast for Germany states. Nevertheless, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel is confident: Economic activity will gain traction again over our forecast horizon up to 2028, he said when presenting the Bundesbank’s new Forecast for Germany. The forecast projects that the inflation rate will rise to almost 3% in 2026 and 2027, only returning to just below 2% in 2028.
In April 2026, Germany’s current account recorded a surplus of €13.8 billion, down €10.7 billion on the previous month’s level. This was attributable to lower surpluses in the goods account and in invisible current transactions, which comprise services as well as primary and secondary income.
Germany’s current account recorded a surplus of €23.6 billion in March 2026. This was €3.1 billion up on the previous month’s level. The goods account surplus decreased, but the surplus in invisible current transactions, which comprise services as well as primary and secondary income, increased more strongly.
Commercial property prices in Germany increased by 2.1 % on the year in the first quarter of 2026. This means the rise that had begun in mid-2024 continued almost unchanged.
Germany’s foreign direct investment stocks at the end of 2024
At year-end 2024, Germany’s outward foreign direct investment (FDI) stocks in immediate held enterprises (immediate host economy, IHE) were up only marginally on the end of 2023 in net terms, rising from €1,727 billion to €1,750 billion. As in the previous years, equity capital accounted for the bulk of this, at €1,884 billion. German investors’ foreign credit positions reduced the direct investment stocks by €134 billion on balance, as claims of €428 billion were outweighed by liabilities of €562 billion.
In the fourth quarter of 2025, households’ financial assets increased significantly, closing the year at €9,504 billion. This represents a rise of €148 billion on the previous quarter, with households increasing their assets by €78 billion and generating valuation gains of €70 billion.
General government debt in Germany increased by €144 billion in 2025 to €2.84 trillion. Central government debt, including its off-budget entities, grew by €107 billion.
Germany’s current account recorded a surplus of €17.1 billion in January 2026, slightly down on the previous month’s level. Although the surplus in the goods account increased, the surplus in invisible current transactions, which comprise services as well as primary and secondary income, declined slightly more sharply.
The Bundesbank’s Executive Board has made a policy decision regarding the central bank’s future location: the Bundesbank is planning to buy a property in Frankfurt that will serve as the site of its Central Office. This decision was preceded by a cost-efficiency assessment conducted by the Bundesbank with external support.
