A lack of data is making it very difficult to estimate probabilities of default. Experts from 13 countries discussed different approaches, from the factoring in of certain variables to the development of algorithms. Only time will tell which of these will win out in practice.

The German economy did not grow as quickly in the first quarter of 2018 as it did in the last three months of 2017. While the Bundesbank expects the underlying economic boom to continue in spite of the dip in growth, its economists concede in the May Monthly Report that "the underlying cyclical trend may well have decelerated unexpectedly quickly to a pace of growth that is now only slightly above potential growth."

“Economic output in Germany is likely to have increased slightly in the first quarter of 2025, but could suffer a setback in the second quarter,” the Bundesbank writes in its latest Monthly Report. Construction and industrial output, for instance, were up recently. Retail sales also continued to grow in January and February. However, according to the Bundesbank’s economists, the outlook for the second quarter is gloomy, not least given the US administration’s tariff policy.

Monthly turnover data are available for industry and the retail trade sector. Quarterly time series are published for the services sector. The results for the retail trade are also included in the calculation of private consumption.

In 2024, the Bundesbank registered approximately 72,400 counterfeit euro banknotes with a nominal value of €4.5 million in German payments. The number of counterfeits was thus up by 28% on the year. 

In addition to the regularly recurring questions on enterprise metrics, expectations and access to loans, the Bundesbank frequently asks enterprises questions on various current issues. A selection of the results is presented here.

Die Konjunktur- und Preisentwicklung in Deutschland und in anderen Ländern wird in verschiedenen Statistiken abgebildet.

Cash remains the most frequently used means of payment at the point of sale in Germany. This is one of the findings of the Bundesbank’s latest study on payment behaviour in Germany for 2023. However, card and mobile payments are gaining significant ground, while the share of cash payments is declining. Although this decline is no longer as pronounced as during the coronavirus pandemic, the share of cash payments is falling faster than in previous years,” said Executive Board member Burkhard Balz.