The war in the Middle East is weighing on the German economy and will initially slow down the recovery that began in the winter half-year, the Bundesbank’s latest Forecast for Germany states. Nevertheless, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel is confident: Economic activity will gain traction again over our forecast horizon up to 2028, he said when presenting the Bundesbank’s new Forecast for Germany. The forecast projects that the inflation rate will rise to almost 3% in 2026 and 2027, only returning to just below 2% in 2028.

Real interest rates are interest rates that have been adjusted for developments in purchasing power. They are broadly calculated as the difference between the nominal interest rate and the inflation rate (in the case of low interest rates and relatively stable prices).