Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel has warned of persistently high inflation. “Even before the war against Ukraine, the inflation rate was very high. [...] Given the surge in energy prices on account of the war, consumer price inflation is likely to pick up again substantially, particularly in the near term,” Mr Nagel said in a speech delivered at a change of office ceremony in Hanover. As members of the ECB Governing Council, he remarked, we must now ensure that the strong inflation does not become entrenched and does not lead to excessively high inflation in the medium term.

Germany’s current account recorded a surplus of €18.9 billion in November 2021, up €1.3 billion on the previous month’s level. The surplus in the goods account declined slightly, but the surplus in invisible current transactions, which comprise services as well as primary and secondary income, increased more strongly. 

German banks tightened their credit standards for loans to enterprises marginally in the second quarter 2022. In the case of loans to households for house purchase, the tightening of credit standards was stronger than at any other time since the introduction of the BLS. Credit standards for consumer credit and other lending were also tightened.

Professor Dr. Axel A. Weber, President of the Deutsche Bundesbank, Speech at the Norges Bank Conference on Monetary Policy

In the current issue of its Monthly Report, the Bundesbank uses scenario calculations to analyse the potential macroeconomic impact of a further escalation of the war against Ukraine. According to the experts, German real GDP this year could be down by as much as 2% compared with 2021. The inflation rate in Germany in 2022 could be 1½ percentage points higher than expected in the European Central Bank’s March projection.