The war in the Middle East is weighing on the German economy and will initially slow down the recovery that began in the winter half-year, the Bundesbank’s latest Forecast for Germany states. Nevertheless, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel is confident: Economic activity will gain traction again over our forecast horizon up to 2028, he said when presenting the Bundesbank’s new Forecast for Germany. The forecast projects that the inflation rate will rise to almost 3% in 2026 and 2027, only returning to just below 2% in 2028.

On 12 June, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel will be awarded the National Order of the Legion of Honour (Légion d’Honneur). In bestowing the country’s highest honour, France recognises the Bundesbank President’s personal contributions to Franco-German cooperation and underlines the importance of Franco-German friendship for Europe. 

The latest event in the Bundesbank Invited Speakers Series saw Stanford University professor Darrell Duffie and Bundesbank Executive Board member Fritzi Köhler-Geib discuss the role that payment systems play in demand for central bank reserves. Their conversation also focused on structural change in the financial system as well as the impact of digital innovations on monetary policy and financial stability.

The war in Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have shaken global energy markets and evoked memories of 2022, when Russia’s attack on Ukraine significantly exacerbated the energy crisis of 2021/22. In the current issue of the Monthly Report, Bundesbank experts examine both crises and show that while there are parallels there are also significant differences.